Most Norwegians have perhaps been most busy frantically checking Yr for a possible glimpse of the sun, or the sea for jellyfish before a cold bath. But my impression is that many people have also talked about the USA, Biden, Trump and the USA over the barbecue or the shrimp sandwich. We are concerned with American politics in this country, and the last few weeks have been a rollercoaster ride of historic proportions. It’s really not everyday when a former US president is nearly killed at a campaign rally one week and the sitting president decides not to run for re-election the next. The United States is now avoiding an election campaign between two elderly men in which much would revolve around the past. The contours of an election campaign with two clear options are beginning to emerge, although much remains unclear. More on that later. The Democrats are having a bad time On a human level, it has been almost painful to follow Joe Biden and his allies’ attempts to defend the president until Sunday evening. Biden on stage during the presidential debate that changed everything. Photo: ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP/NTB The whole world saw what they refused to see. In both debates and TV interviews, Joe Biden appeared not as a politician with spark and will to win, but an old man of 81 years who struggled to keep up and articulate his thoughts. Voluntarily stepping down from power is still more difficult than it may appear from the outside. It is one of the rarities in politics that it happens. Although Biden was eventually pushed into a corner by poor polls and a party that turned against him, he himself decided not to run for re-election. This is in sharp contrast to how Donald Trump handled his election defeat in 2020. Biden’s decision nevertheless comes late, and the Democratic Party now has little time to rally around a candidate and get started with the election campaign. The party is in uncharted waters and it has not yet been finally decided who it will be. It could end up being an open contest, but right now all arrows are pointing towards Kamala Harris taking over as their candidate. A hard-fought election campaign awaits From the outside, it is difficult to judge Harris’s suitability for a hard-fought election campaign ahead of her. Until now, she has played a supporting role. Now she gets the spotlight and will ask for confidence to lead the whole country. Kamala Harris when she was sworn in as Vice President. It is likely that she will be the one to challenge Trump in the battle to be sworn in as president in the new year. Photo: BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI / AFP/NTB Harris often appears energetic, is 59 years old and thus considerably younger than his Republican counterpart, and has done relatively well recently. She has particularly distinguished herself in the fight for abortion rights. But she ran a poor nomination campaign in 2020 and often stumbled in the beginning as vice president. Among other things, when she had to deal with the complicated case of illegal immigration. It is just as demanding that she represents continuity while many voters want change. The debate between Trump and Biden was decisive for Biden having to resign, but not for his poor polls. They came long before the debate. Trump is stronger than ever There are two things in particular that preoccupy voters: The record-high inflation and immigration. These are areas where Trump is remembered by many voters as a good president. It is also uncertain how everything about Biden’s health will turn out. It may seem that the Democratic Party kept Biden’s state of health hidden. It enters the narrative that Trump spins about an alleged elite that controls the American state. His election campaign has already started to play on this theme. Donald Trump raises his fist after the assassination attempt against him earlier in July. Photo: Evan Vucci / AP/NTB The other thing that makes the road ahead more difficult for the Democrats is that Trump is a far more solid candidate than he was a few months ago. His long weeks in the New York courtroom barely registered in the polls, a Florida judge dismissed the lawsuit over the classified papers he took home and the Supreme Court partially upheld his immunity from prosecution as president. And this was before he survived the assassination attempt at the election rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The image of Trump with a bloody ear is already part of American political history. It changed the election campaign, and gave Trump an extra layer as a politician. He appeared more unifying and at the same time vulnerable, at least for a while. More of Trump The Republicans then held a successful party convention where Trump was praised and received the energy boost that American party conventions are supposed to give into an election campaign. He participated with his vice presidential candidate JD Vance, a choice that also testifies to a confident Trump. JD Vance and Donald Trump together on stage during the Republican National Convention in July. Photo: Evan Vucci / AP/NTB Vance is more of Trump, more of the populist MAGA movement that now totally dominates the Republican Party and says something about what Trump wants with politics. Vance is a well-articulated ideologue with a clear anchoring in Trump’s universe. In foreign policy in particular, the election of Vance is a signal. He is strongly critical of the way American foreign policy has been conducted. He himself says that he was lied to about the rationale for going to war against Iraq in 2003, a war he himself participated in. He wants fewer wars abroad and is reducing support for Ukraine. It is a reminder of how much this autumn’s election also means to the rest of the world. Clear choice Should the Democrats end up with Harris as their candidate, Americans will have a clear choice in the autumn between two different political directions the country can take. Both about how the country should be governed and about the US’s role in the world. Among other things, on the Ukraine issue, Harris has been clear about how important it is with continued military support. With her background, she also represents a more diverse United States. Biden’s exit thus opens up wider political discussion and not just the discussion about Biden’s age and Trump as a person. It is healthy for American democracy, even if it is going to be a somewhat ugly election campaign. And judging by the drama of recent weeks, we should all also be prepared for new surprises. Published 23/07/2024, at 06.35
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A clear choice awaits the USA – Statement
