President Joe Biden does not have a tailwind in the Democratic sails these days. Before the presidential debate at the end of June, many people spoke worriedly about the age of the 81-year-old. After the debate, which was disastrous for Biden, his age is the main focus of almost the entire American people. As of Friday morning, 17 out of 213 Democratic congressmen have said publicly that Joe Biden should withdraw as the party’s presidential candidate. One of a total of 47 Democratic senators, Peter Welch, has said the same, shows a count made by the New York Times. Joe Biden during the opening of the NATO summit in Washington on Thursday. Photo: KEVIN DIETSCH / AFP In addition, nearly 30 party members have expressed concern about the situation, and questioned whether the situation is sustainable. At the same time, just under 60 Democrats have publicly supported Biden, and say they support him as president. In other words, a lot can happen in the next few days. Below you can read about five possible scenarios for the time to come: Biden does not resign Biden resigns and points to Harris Biden points to the national convention Biden is voted out against his will Biden resigns as president Biden does not resign – If he does not resign, he will probably be nominated at the national meeting in August. Then all the democrats just have to shut up and try to get him elected, says Hilde Restad, associate professor at Oslo New University College. The first time Joe Biden ran as the Democrats’ presidential candidate was in 1988. Last Thursday, he made his position clear again: he has no plans in mind. He will still become the country’s oldest president ever. Hilde Restad, associate professor at Oslo New University College. Photo: Martin Holvik / news USA expert and professor of political science Hilmar Mjelde believes the most likely scenario is that Biden will remain in office. – It is very rare for American presidents to step down prematurely. Biden does not want to be the first for a long time to do so, says Mjelde to news. Are Tågvold Flaten, editor of amerikanspolitikk.no, tells news that he thinks there is a 60 percent chance that Biden will keep it going. Deborah Kitchen-Døderlein, associate professor of American history and culture at UIO, believes the pressure and scrutiny from the media makes Biden more determined. – He feels bullied and pushed into a corner. The more they push him, the less likely he is to withdraw, Kitchen-Døderlein believes. Donald Trump and Joe Biden during the presidential debate in June, broadcast on CNN. Photo: AFP Although the opinion polls in the United States do not agree down to the decimal point, they are largely unanimous that Donald Trump is likely to win the election, if it is between him and Biden. According to the newspaper The Hill, which writes about American politics, there is a 56 percent probability that Donald Trump will win. According to them, Trump leads by 2.6 in the opinion polls. For the Democrats, however, it is not just about the presidential election. If there are few votes for Biden, it will usually also mean fewer votes for the candidates in Congress. This could mean that they lose both the House of Representatives, the Senate and the opportunity to gain influence for their own policies. Do you think Joe Biden will be the Democrats’ presidential candidate? Yes, only chance to win Yes, but don’t think it’s a good idea No, think he’ll be thrown No, think he’ll withdraw Show result Biden points to Harris If Biden chooses to withdraw as presidential candidate before the upcoming election, Vice President Kamala Harris will be a natural heir. – If Biden stands behind Harris, you minimize the chances of games being played out, says Restad. – It could be that the party finds out that there is no time for nonsense, and that they must gather around Harris. But it opens the door for dissent, for other candidates and games in the back room. Deborah Kitchen-Døderlein, associate professor at UIO. Photo: Private Kitchen-Døderlein believes that a possible successor will not have enough time to establish himself as a presidential candidate before the election. Nevertheless: – I would have been surprised if he had not pointed to Harris in such a situation. If Biden does it voluntarily, Harris may have a better chance than many others. Kitchen-Døderlein points out that Biden can transfer all his election money, or donations, to Harris, as they are on the same ballot. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris during the 4th of July celebration last week. Photo: Elizabeth Frantz / Reuters Biden points towards the national meeting Biden can also withdraw as a presidential candidate, without appointing a successor. The decision will then be taken at the party’s national meeting in August. – So, there is a flood of people to take off, says Hilde Restad, who believes that such a situation would quickly become chaotic. – If there is an open national meeting where everyone can nominate themselves, then you suddenly have things going. Restad believes that the best thing for the Democrats would have been if Biden stepped aside as a candidate voluntarily. The experts news has spoken to believe it is unlikely that Biden will not point to an heir, should he withdraw as a candidate. Photo: Manuel Balce Ceneta / AP Are Tågvold Flaten believes it is unlikely that Biden will resign without appointing a successor. And the natural heir is Harris, says Flaten. – It will be a declaration of bankruptcy by her own choice as vice-president, says Flaten. Kitchen-Døderlein also thinks this is unlikely. – Then they had to have new primaries in all 50 states. It would have been almost impossible to achieve in practical terms. Biden is removed against his will When the Democrats’ national convention is held in August, the presidential candidate will also be officially chosen. Because even though Biden has been an obvious candidate, he has not been formally chosen by his party colleagues. Kitchen-Døderlein believes it is unlikely that the Democrats would be able to gather around a new candidate, so shortly before the national convention is held. – I also don’t think that many people want to go against him, because they know that they will lose. Those who have a desire to become president are not going to waste their dream on what they know is a losing cause, she believes. The delegates at the national meeting are elected with a promise to vote for Biden, but they are not legally bound to do so. Are Tågvold Flaten still believes that if Biden holds his position until the national convention, he will also become the party’s candidate. Biden resigns as president Biden can also choose to resign both as a presidential candidate and as president with immediate effect. The presidency will then pass to Kamala Harris, who will again have to choose a new vice president. The experts news has spoken to believe this outcome is the least likely. Should Biden choose to resign as president, the club he will be part of is a very small one: Biden and Richard Nixon, who resigned after the Watergate scandal. – The only possibility for Harris to become president before Biden’s term as president is over is if he becomes physically ill or dies. He is not going to resign, says Kitchen-Døderlein. US expert Hilmar Mjelde categorizes the five outcomes as follows: – Alternatives one to three are the most likely – in that order. Scenario four is out of the question, in my opinion. Scenario five is also very unlikely. Published 12.07.2024, at 17.44
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What is happening with Joe Biden and the election in the United States? – news Norway – Overview of news from different parts of the country
