For those who like drama, it’s really just a matter of getting out of the TV apps and turning on the French election campaign, which is in full swing. It’s almost like you don’t miss dragons. Because what is one to do with fiction when the party leader of the once dominant right-wing party locks the door to the party office and shuts himself in, while the rest of the leadership meet nearby to exclude him? Or when a former president (Hollande) and former boss of the current president (Macron) throw themselves into the election campaign, as opponents? Revenge is perhaps best enjoyed cold. The far right can win for the first time But more important than personal conflicts and conspiracies: a fundamental drama is unfolding these days that could change France and Europe. The far right, dominated by the Le Pen family, stands at the gates of power. It has already happened in many other European countries. In Italy, the post-fascists are in power, while governments in the far north have their majorities with the support of both Sannfinner and Sweden Democrats. France is, however, different. It is a European superpower with a seat on the UN Security Council, and has its own very own history. Modern France’s two great traumas are defeat in the Second World War and then the brutal Algerian War. The far right was on the losing side both times. They actively collaborated with the Vichy regime, France’s version of the Quisling government, which fell when France was liberated 80 years ago. They also actively fought against General Charles de Gaulle, who decided that France should withdraw from Algeria and give the North African country independence. But this is becoming a long time ago. Today, the far-right party Rassemblement National (RN) – Nasjonal Samling in Norwegian – is led by the duo Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. It is Marine Le Pen who is the boss and who has done the heaviest work in distancing herself from party founder and her own father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. Bardella has taken the party further into a new media world with quick messages and a winning personality, which speaks to new and old voter groups. Now they get the national election they have dreamed of. The outcome is completely uncertain Emmanuel Macron inflicted an electric shock on the French political body with his decision to call new elections. In a few quick days it has split into three parts: the left has put aside many (but not all) internal disputes and rallied under the banner of the Nouveau Front Populaire. They play here at the left’s successful gathering in the 1930s. Center and moderate right-wing forces led by politicians and parties supporting Macron make up another part. And so we have the far right with Bardella at the head. It is RN and Bardella who have the wind in their sails. They took an almost unheard-of victory in the European elections earlier in June. Immigration and crime became important themes in the election campaign, themes they have been troubling for a long time. In addition, opposition to the green shift was an important part, presented as something decided by the EU and Brussels and for which French people on low wages are paying the price, including with electric cars. “Old grandmothers must then be able to drive their old Peugeot to the bakery”, as one of their elected representatives put it. Weakened purchasing power and poor finances are also important drivers. Together with opposition to, and partly distaste for, those who rule the country, with President Macron at the head, this becomes a powerful political concoction. Political suicide or stroke of genius? It’s almost like you get the impression that France is about to experience a slow-motion version of what happened when the US elected Donald Trump in 2016. Criticism of the system had become so strong that many voters want to overturn the game board and start over, whatever the cost . On the other side: This is a national election, not an EU election. Traditionally, French voters have drawn a distinction between these elections and now things are really at stake. The left’s gathering also makes the path to the prime minister’s offices more difficult for RN and Bardella. The country could quickly end up with a national assembly where no one has a majority. In any case, the voters do not get to start all over again. It is now a new national assembly that will be elected, not a president. In any case, Macron will remain in office for three more years unless he voluntarily resigns, and will control foreign policy regardless of who wins this summer’s election. With his decision, the president has thrown France into an existential drama at a critical time. Old teachings no longer hold and no one dares to predict how this will end. The only thing commentators and experts agree on is that Macron has taken a big risk and compares it to both poker and roulette. Those with the most gallows humor call it Belgian roulette. France has jokes about Belgium that we have about the Swedes, and vice versa. In Belgian roulette, not one, but six balls are placed in the chamber. Certain death awaits the player. Published 21.06.2024, at 18.27
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Political poker or Belgian roulette? – Speech
