Port facilities, containers and residential buildings. Israel reacted quickly when Hezbollah on Tuesday shared what it believed to be a video of the Israeli city of Haifa filmed during the day by a drone in the air. It is unclear when the drone video was filmed – Operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon have been approved and confirmed. It was decided to continue to increase the readiness of our forces in the field, Israel’s defense, the IDF, wrote on X Tuesday. It did not take long before Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah answered the Israelis: – No place will be safe from our missiles and drones, he said in a speech on TV on Wednesday. He also threatened Cyprus because the country has military cooperation with Israel. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel that the group will not limit itself in its attacks against Israel. Photo: Al-Manar / Ho / AFP The rhetoric between the parties is becoming increasingly harsh. The attacks in the border areas have become more powerful and occur more frequently. There is no doubt that the danger of full-scale war has increased, says David Wood, senior researcher with a focus on Lebanon at the International Crisis Group think tank. – Of course it is, says Wood to news. – Scares Israel Hezbollah stepped up its attacks against Israel after 7 October last year. It was then that Hamas attacked Israel, which responded by attacking Gaza. Since then, the fronts between Israel and Hezbollah have become increasingly steep. The United States is also concerned that the conflict will escalate. Wood believes what is supposed to be drone video from Hezbollah could really put a real dent in the Israelis. An Israeli firefighter and another Israeli man lie on the ground in Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel after the plane alert went off on June 19. Photo: AYAL MARGOLIN / Reuters The video apparently shows possible attack targets in Haifa. Residential areas, ports and what are claimed to be military installations. It also shows one more thing: that the militant group claims it can bypass Israel’s advanced air defense systems. – Hezbollah knows that this type of recording can cause panic in Israel. It leads to questions about the air defense systems, and more generally about the defense’s ability to wage war against Hezbollah, says Wood. David Wood believes that the video can spread fear in Israel. Photo: International Crisis Group It is not the first time attack drones have gotten past Israel’s air defense. Earlier in June, a reservist was killed and another ten people were injured when at least two drones carrying explosives were sent towards a town in northern Israel, the Times of Israel reported. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the attack. Even before Hezbollah published the video on Tuesday, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Daniel Hagari warned about the situation: “Hezbollah’s increasing aggression brings to the brink of what could be a further escalation.” One that could have devastating consequences for Lebanon and the entire region, he told the press. Wood believes that Hezbollah is trying to scare Israel away from the idea of carrying out larger attacks against the group. He also reminds that Hezbollah is militarily much stronger than Hamas, against whom Israel has been fighting in Gaza since October last year. Does not want “a new Syria” But neither Israel nor Hezbollah actually wants a major war, Wood believes. Things indicate, for example, that they have, after all, tried to limit attacks on civilians. Several thousand attacks have been carried out against targets on either side of the border. Hezbollah attacks with rockets and drones. Israel with, among other things, bombers and artillery. Smoke billows after an Israeli bomb attack on the village of Khiam in southern Lebanon on June 19. Photo: RABIH DAHER / AFP There are various reports about the number of dead and injured. In May, the news agency Reuters wrote that 75 civilians and 250 Hezbollah fighters have been killed since October. In Israel, the number of dead is “around a dozen soldiers and several civilians”. Hezbollah and Hamas are both non-state groups. And they operate in relatively small geographical areas. Hezbollah in parts of Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. But the conflict is bigger than that, points out Hanne Eggen Røislien. Among other things, she does research on the Israeli military and is a special adviser to the Defense Staff. The militant groups are supported by Israel’s arch-enemy Iran. While Israel’s most important ally is the United States. – Israel wants to crush Hamas. Then Israel must ensure that Hamas cannot regroup and rebuild itself. Thus, they must also weaken Hezbollah, says Røislien. – But Israel’s defense cannot scale up too quickly. They must ensure that they retain the support of the United States. And no one benefits from a major regional war. Nobody is interested in a new Syria, she emphasizes. Hanne Eggen Røislien believes that nobody really wants a major war between Israel and Hamas. Photo: Ruth Synnøve Barsten / news Røislien also believes that Israel would struggle to fight a major war against Hezbollah at the same time as the war against Hamas in Gaza rages on. – No one will be able to handle a war on all fronts, she says. But the parties are playing a risky game. Waiting for a Gaza ceasefire – The reality is that the more intense these operations become, and the longer they last, the greater the risk of a tactical error, says David Wood of the International Crisis Group. For example, one can hit a block of flats instead of a military target. Or one can misjudge where the other party’s red line actually goes. – Then you can accidentally cause a huge escalation into a full-blown war, says Wood. Hezbollah fighters carry the coffin containing the body of Hezbollah leader Taleb Sami Abdullah, known as Hajj Abu Taleb, who was killed last week in an Israeli attack in southern Lebanon. Photo: Bilal Hussein / AP There is also no doubt that the situation is now much more fragile than before 7 October. The conflict between Israel and Hamas has lasted a long time. In 2006, the two fought a month-long war. Since then, the conflict has simmered on with minor attacks here and there. But there were some “unwritten rules” that both sides adhered to, says Wood. But they evaporated after 7 October. The parties now use more powerful weapons and attack further and further into each other’s territory. Is there any solution in sight? Wood believes the key lies in Gaza. – It is unlikely that there will be a solution to the conflict on the border between Israel and Lebanon before there is a ceasefire in Gaza. Simply because Hezbollah will not back down. Published 19.06.2024, at 22.11 Updated 19.06.2024, at 22.12
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