And the Oscar goes to… The little gentleman “Oscar” in gold is every filmmaker’s dream. For some, it is so important that they make films they think will strike a chord with the jury: So-called “Oscar bait”. Research shows that Hollywood prefers a certain type of film. That’s what Gabriel Rossman at the University of California says. He is behind a model which he believes can calculate the probability of a film winning an Oscar. Gabriel Rossman from UCLA researches the Oscars. Photo: PRIVATE Rossman has collected information about Oscar-winning films from several decades back, and analyzed it like this: Here are parts of Rossman’s model. Photo: PRIVAT Yes, it literally looks completely Greek. But we have asked the researcher to explain it to us. Together with three Norwegian film experts, he will give us what he believes is the very recipe for an Oscar-winning film – or Oscar bait, if you like. And here are the ingredients: Based on a true story You can make as good a zombie comedy as you want: It will (most likely) not win an Oscar. Rossman’s model shows that the genres that statistically receive the most awards are drama, war, history and biography. Or as film critic Gry Cecilie Rustad calls them: – Serious and self-celebratory films, preferably about a famous person. Oscar-winning films are often serious, says film critic Gry Cecilie Rustad. Photo: Tordis Gauteplass Rossman singles out Oppenheimer as a perfect example of the “Oscar genre”: – It is a drama about the Second World War, it is based on real events and is about a real person, he says. Cilian Murphy makes himself popular with the Oscar Academy when he plays the famous Robert Oppenheimer. Photo: Universal Studios Half of the actors who have won “Best actor” or “Best actress” in the last twenty years have played famous people. Showbiz and repression On the Internet Movie Database, from which the model takes information, each film’s action is described with a few key words. Rossman points out that which keywords are popular varies from year to year. – But they often have something to do with disabilities, oppression, racism and things like that, he says. The historical drama Killers of the Flower Moon is about oppression. Photo: Apple Studios Film reviewer in VG, Morten Ståle Nilsen, describes the action in a typical Oscar-winning film as follows: – Playing a person who has a difficulty in life that they have to overcome, be it a physical handicap or a mental disorder. It helps to have a protagonist who suffers a little, says film reviewer Morten Ståle Nilsen. Photo: Anne Liv Ekroll / news Political intrigue, investigative journalism and show business are popular topics, adds Rossman. Ringrev as director You would think that it is the star actors Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro who give Killers of the Flower Moon so much Oscar appeal. But according to Rossman, who is behind the camera is just as important. Films with a director who has previously won an Oscar have a good chance of repeating the success, the model shows. Martin Scorsese has previously won the Oscar for best director. Maybe he can win one more time? Photo: Danny Moloshok / AP In the time of the count Have you ever wondered why so many films are suddenly released at the end of the year? The answer could be the Oscars. There, films that come out at the start of the year have a markedly worse chance of winning than those that come closer to the award ceremony. – The later it is released, the better. Especially if it is released in November or December, says Rossman. Yes, it must also be released in cinemas. Here, Bradley Cooper took a shortcut with the film Maestro, which was only in cinemas for a little over a week, before it landed on Netflix. Maestro went to the cinema for a period in December. Photo: Jason McDonald/Netflix © 2023 / Jason McDonald/Netflix Phew! It thus qualified in the count’s time – which in the context of the Oscars is the best time. Quality Here Rossman has to admit the model’s weakness. It is difficult to describe quality in a mathematical algorithm. But quality is important, also for the “academy”. Rossman believes precisely the lack of quality is the reason why Napoleon, which otherwise follows the recipe closely, is not predicted to do well on Oscar night. Napoleon is not an Oscar favourite, despite being a historical drama about a famous person. Photo: SF Studios / SF Studios While Oppenheimer, who uses the same formula, is the big favorite against the distribution. Lobbying The gripping historical drama has been prepared, and the premiere date has been set. But it’s not time to rest on our laurels just yet! Now begins the real work of convincing the Academy to watch your film. One thing is particularly important here: Money, money, money. Photo: Afp The big studios can spend millions of dollars promoting their films. This makes it impossible for the jury not to notice them. But according to film critic Gry Cecilie Rustad, it is not a good idea to become too popular too early in the race. – You have seen in recent years that the Oscar Academy has surprised a little, she says. Why are Oscars so important in Hollywood? According to Rossman, enough Oscar bait is released every year. What is “Oscar Bait”? “Oscar bait”, or Oscar-agn in Norwegian, is used for films that are apparently trying to win an award at the Oscars. It is difficult to prove that a film is actively campaigning to win awards, so the more neutral “Oscar appeal” is used for films that appeal to the Oscars. But why is this golden man so incredibly important to Hollywood? – It’s glam, it’s a circus and it’s a marketing tactic, answers film scientist at NTNU, Christer Bakke Andresen. Oscar nominations provide good marketing power, says Christer Bakke Andresen. Photo: news – Then you can sell your film with “Oscar-nominated”, he elaborates. Oscar winners often sell better than other films, explains Oscar researcher Rossman. Not least, as Oscar winners usually say in their speech: “What an honor!” An Oscar is considered the biggest thing you can get in the film world. Photo: DON EMMERT / AFP
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This is how you win an Oscar – news Culture and entertainment
