The five largest Norwegian cities have entered into an urban growth agreement together with the neighboring municipalities, the county council and the state. The city regions have committed to zero growth in passenger car traffic compared to the reference year 2019. Zero growth is a prerequisite for obtaining government funds for investment in public transport, walking and cycling, road development and relevant urban development. Questions from news to the cities with urban growth agreements on zero growth targets: 1. What is the zero growth target (24-hour traffic = ÅDT) locally, and what is ÅDT today? 2. What is the average rate today, and how big is the toll revenue compared to what was planned and what is needed? 3. What is the share of electric cars and what is the discount for electric cars? 4. What is the expected traffic development until 2034 (possibly another time period for which a forecast has been prepared)? 5. Is it current policy to increase the rates, and how will it possibly affect the development of traffic and the collected toll revenues? Answer from Bypakke 3 in Oslo: 1. Compared to the reference year 2018, traffic was 0.3% less in 2019, 7.1% less in 2020, 4.9% less in 2021 and 0.3% greater in 2022. for 2023 are not ready. The figure is based on the city index for the Oslo area (short vehicles, under 5.6 metres). From 2018 there were 24 counting points, from 2021 83 counting points. Since there has been a change in the counting point, we have only looked at the percentage change from year to year and accumulated change from 2018. Figures for development per month in the city index have greater uncertainty. In October 2023, traffic was 1% less than the same month in 2018. 2. The average rate today is around NOK 12. Toll revenues are mainly as expected. In the autumn, the Minister of Transport will change the time rules for those without a chip/agreement. This reduces toll revenue in Oslo package 3 by around NOK 400 million in 2024. 3. Light electric cars accounted for 34.7% of all light vehicles in the toll system in 2022. As of November 2023, the share is 42.8%. Electric cars pay 50% of the normal rate. 4. When calculating toll revenues, no growth in traffic was assumed. This is in line with the zero growth target and historical development in the toll system. In its analysis for the urban growth analysis, Norconsult has calculated that passenger car traffic in Oslo and Akershus will increase by 17% until 2040, corresponding to NTP’s calculation. This calculation only envisages approved changes and does not take account of ongoing changes in, for example, public transport services, arrangements for walking and cycling or any changes in toll rates. The growth should therefore be considered a high estimate. 5. In 2022, it was decided that the toll rate will increase on 1 January 2024. This gives an average rate of NOK 12.2. It is estimated that it will provide approximately NOK 400 million more in toll revenue in 2024, and that it will reduce traffic in the toll system by approximately 0.5%. It is also planned that Oslo Package 3 will be renegotiated in the spring of 2024. Answer from the Environmental Lift in Bergen: See the online article. Answer from the Environmental Package in Trondheim: 1. Passenger car transport in the environmental package area for the period January – September 2023 was 3.8 per cent higher than the same period in 2019 (which is the Environmental Package’s reference year). The calculations are taken from the “city index” developed by the Norwegian Public Roads Administration. The city index is the main indicator of whether we reach the zero growth target. 2. The set average rate is NOK 8.0 at the 2017 price level (the toll proposal). This corresponds to NOK 9.77 at the 2023 price level. 3. There is a 60% discount for zero-emission vehicles in rate group 1. The share of electric cars through the toll for rate group 1 was 35 per cent in the period January-September 2023. 5. A tariff decision has recently been implemented for the Environmental Package, where the tariffs have been adjusted and environmentally differentiated tariffs have been introduced. Through the set rates, the average rate is maintained at the level provided for in the toll ratio. 4 and 5: This is something I will work on in the future. Our board has asked for a case on this. Answer from the Urban Environment Package in Stavanger: 1. The zero growth target in the Urban Environment Package is 210,000 in ÅDT. Average daily traffic is 205,873 in October 2023. For comparison, it was 203,338 in October 2022 and 217,549 in October 2019. 2. The average rate per passage in October is NOK 12.5. The budget provided for an average income of NOK 13.5 per pass. Gross toll revenue against the budget in 2023 is calculated at NOK 975 million. The seasonal variations in 2019 are used as a basis for the income part per month. The toll revenue per October shows a negative deviation of NOK 36 million compared to the revised budget 2023. Net toll revenue against the budget in 2023 is calculated at NOK 854 million, (cf. Revised budget 2023). Net tolls per October are higher than budgeted, and there is currently a positive deviation in accordance with the revised annual budget of around NOK 40 million. The reason for the difference between gross and net is high financial income. 3. The proportion of electric vehicles now accounts for 33.5 per cent of all passes in the toll average. Today, zero-emission vehicles pay 50% of the tariff for fossil vehicles. From 1.1.24, the rate is 70% of the rate for fossil vehicles. 4. Based on calculations from the National Roads Administration, it is expected that a tariff for zero-emission vehicles of 70% will result in 2030: – Reduced number of car journeys by 1.7% – Increased number of public transport journeys by 1% – Increased number of walking and cycling journeys by 1.2 %- Increase toll revenue of 18% More information is available at bymiljopakken.no, for example here and here. 1. Based on 12 counting points, ÅDT was a total of 155,670 in 2019 (the reference year in the urban growth agreement). A city growth agreement was entered into on 30.10.23. The Norwegian Public Roads Administration’s first report will be ready in January 2024. Then the ÅDT for 2023 will be available. However, in the annex to the urban growth agreement, it is shown that traffic in 2022 was 4.2 per cent lower than the zero growth target (i.e. in 2019). And the Swedish Road Administration’s half-yearly report for 2023 showed a traffic decrease of 6.1 percent from January to August 2023, compared to the same period in 2022. This indicates that traffic is now even lower than in 2022 compared to the zero growth target. Tromsø is therefore well placed in relation to the zero growth target so far. 2023 is the first collection year for tolls in Tromsø, and we do not have a stable traffic pattern to measure against yet. We have good figures for the increase in the proportion of walking (25%), cycling (6%) and public transport (15%) from 2019 to 2022, and will receive new figures on this in April 2024 through the Travel Behavior Survey 2023. We still have some catching up to do to target in Tromsø for the proportion of pedestrians, cyclists and public transport travellers. 2. The average rate is falling throughout the year. The average rate January-October 2023 was NOK 4.6 (January 2023 – October 2023). The average rate in October was NOK 4.2. The assumed average rate is 6.1 2021 kroner. This corresponds to approximately NOK 6.9 2023 per October 2023. Available total toll revenue was calculated at NOK 3,800 billion in 2021. This amounts to approximately NOK 4.3 billion in 2023 (compare development in the consumer price index as of October 2023). Estimated total toll revenues are calculated, based on the current situation, at NOK 3.4 billion in 2023 when the rates are adjusted in accordance with the consumer price index (possibly NOK 2.5 billion in 2023 without adjustment in the consumer price index). Think Tromsø portfolio management. This means that we must adapt the implementation of the project to available funds. The project we are carrying out will ensure the best possible achievement of the target: zero growth in car transport through an increase in walking, cycling and public transport. 3. The share of electric cars is increasing. When the toll ring opened in January 2023, it was 19.2%. In October 2023, it was 22.7%. Everyone with a valid agreement and chip gets a 20% discount. Electric cars also get 50%. The actual electric car discount is a total of 60%. Basic rate NOK 12 minus 20% minus 50% = NOK 4.8 per pass by electric car. 4. We have a target of zero growth in traffic from 2019 onwards, and we are taking measures to reach the zero growth target. The county forecast for Troms, without measures, shows a growth of approx. 6.5% for light vehicles and 22% for heavy vehicles in the period 2019-2034. 5. The financing was discussed in a steering group meeting in Think Tromsø on 7 December 2023. The steering group has asked the secretariat to prepare a basis for the case until the next meeting, for any adjustment of tariffs in accordance with developments in the consumer price index, and in addition an expanded knowledge base for developments in the share of electric cars in Tromsø , the impact of the share of electric cars on disposable income in the future, and also a knowledge base for various adjustment options for electric car discounts. Any rate adjustment has not been processed as of now. Any adjustment of the electric car tariff must be dealt with locally politically in the municipal council and county council in addition to being dealt with in the steering group for Think Tromsø.
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More expensive tolls for electric cars do not prevent more and more cars in the city – news Vestland
