In the last couple of weeks, Russia has stepped up its attacks against Ukraine. During Space Christmas, Russia sent more rockets at Ukrainian cities than ever before, according to the country’s authorities. Six people were killed on New Year’s Day. On Tuesday this week, Russia attacked again. This is just the beginning, says Russian President Vladimir Putin. This is also what experts news has spoken to believe: Everyone believes that there will be more major attacks from Russia in the future. Russia has more weapons – The attacks reflect a more confident Kremlin, says Julie Wilhelmsen, researcher at the Norwegian Foreign Policy Institute (NUPI). Russia researcher Julie Wilhelmsen at NUPI. Photo: Hanna Johre / news – We will see more of this type of attack, which goes after Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, says Palle Ydstebø, lieutenant colonel at the Norwegian Military Academy. – Russia will show strength, says Arkady Moshes, researcher at Finland’s Institute for International Relations. Because Russia has far more weapons than its neighboring country. There is no doubt about that. – Russia has more missiles, rockets and ammunition than Ukraine, says Karsten Friis at NUPI. Russian President Vladimir Putin toasts military leaders outside Moscow on January 1, 2024. Photo: GAVRIIL GRIGOROV / AFP That is why Russia feels they have an advantage, says Friis. Asking for more weapons – Russia is using weapons it has received from Iran and North Korea, while at the same time it looks like they are producing new weapons at a reasonably good pace, says Julie Wilhelmsen. Ukraine, for its part, is completely dependent on Western weapons. Now the military is asking for more help to strengthen the air force. – In the medium and long term, we must have help from the West to replenish the missile stocks, says Lieutenant General Serhiy Najev, who is the joint operational commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, to the AFP news agency. – More ammunition is the first priority, as the Russians really want to deplete our air defence, says Najev. February 24 this year marks two years since Russia started the Great War against Ukraine. Expecting more attacks Arkady Moshes believes that Russia will now show strength, both vis-à-vis Ukraine and the West. Arkady Moshes, head of research at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Photo: Finnish Institute of International Affairs – The many attacks are also Russia sending a signal to the West that they have no intention of giving up, says Moshes to news. In several European countries and the United States, there has been a certain degree of war weariness. Among other things, the Netherlands has elected a new government which has said it will stop aid to Ukraine. More important is the United States, where there is growing skepticism about spending money on Ukraine, especially among Republican voters and elected officials. The President of Russia has noticed this, says Karsten Friis. – I think Putin perceives the West as weak and weakened, and will push further to convince us that there is no point in supporting Ukraine. A family seeks shelter from the bombs at a subway station in Kyiv, Ukraine last February. Also then, Russia attacked important infrastructure. Photo: STRINGER / Reuters He still believes the US will agree to send more money and weapons to Ukraine. – I think the money will come. A Russian victory would be so dramatic for all of us that I don’t think Western leaders will allow it to happen. ‘Anything can happen’ if Trump wins All Western arms support comes with restrictions: Ukraine cannot use them to attack Russia. This rule should be removed, both Friis and Moshes believe. – The restrictions make it very difficult for Ukraine. This is not how one traditionally conducts war, says Moshes to news. He believes 2024 will be a fateful year for Ukraine. – If the country gets enough weapons, it can make it through the year. Then 2025 looks brighter. – If they don’t get weapons, they can lose within six months, says Moshes. Friis also says that Ukraine will lose without more weapons. – If Ukraine does not get more weapons, they will lose. I cannot stress enough how dangerous that will be for the world. China will also notice such a development, while the EU and the US will be permanently weakened. Rescue workers carry an injured woman out of an apartment block in Kharkiv on January 2, 2024. Photo: SERGEY BOBOK / AFP That is why the month of January is important: Both the US and the EU must decide how much weapons and money to send to Ukraine. Karsten Friis believes that the US presidential election in November in particular will be decisive for Ukraine – The most dramatic thing for Ukraine in 2024 will probably be if Donald Trump wins the election in the US. Then everything can happen in 2025, says Friis. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump will not spend money on Ukraine. Photo: AFP Believes pressure will weaken Ukraine The war is also felt in Russia: 24 people, including three children, were killed in Ukrainian attacks on the Russian border town of Belgorod on 30 December, according to the Russian authorities. The Russian economy is now built around the war: according to Western analysts, Russia’s government is spending almost 40 percent of next year’s budget on defense and security. That is more than the entire health and education budget combined, according to the BBC. In his New Year’s speech, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that the country will build up its own weapons production. As an old industrial zone, Ukraine has good conditions for it. But it takes time, points out Palle Ydstebø. Ydstebø. believe that 2024 will be characterized by a race between Russia on the one hand and Ukraine and the West on the other, when it comes to the production of weapons. – It’s about building a defense that can stop Russia in the years to come, says Ydstebø. Palle Ydstebø at the Military Academy. Photo: Mathias Moene Rød Karsten Friis does not think the Russian president is interested in talking about any peace solution. – Can Ukraine be pressured by the West to accept a peace solution with loss of territory during the year? – There is nothing to indicate that Putin wants a peace solution, even if you hear rumors about this from time to time. Putin wants to wipe out Ukraine as a state and a nation. In such a situation, pressure on Ukraine only has the opposite effect: You strengthen Putin and weaken Ukraine, says Karsten Friis.
ttn-69
Expecting more Russian attacks against Ukraine – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
