When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj visited Oslo and Norway for the first time on Wednesday, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said that Norway will continue to stand behind the Ukrainian people. In the US and the EU, the politicians are not as agreed. On Thursday, the Senate in the USA postponed its Christmas break in order to arrive at a new support package for Ukraine of around NOK 523 billion. On Friday, Hungary blocked the EU’s new support package for Ukraine of around NOK 577 billion. Two “Christmas presents” totaling more than a thousand billion kroner have thus been delayed. Not certain that the support packages will arrive Are we facing a potential turning point in the war in Ukraine? It could look like this, answered Russian researcher Julie Wilhelmsen when we interviewed her on Tuesday last week. She emphasizes that it is difficult to assess. – But as far as I can understand now, we are at a critical point, says Wilhelmsen. She is not sure whether the support packages will reach Ukraine. – It is a political choice and that is part of the reason why this financial support and military support may not come, says Wilhelmsen. Conflict and international law researcher Cecilie Hellestveit is also not sure whether the support packages will arrive. – I do not know. It depends on how good political craftsmanship is done, says Hellestveit. – How long can Ukraine wait for these support packages? – We do not know what it looks like on the inside of the Ukrainian state finances. It is a military question, so it is secret, says Hellestveit. – But Ukraine is dependent on these support packages to continue the war? – They are, of course, answers Hellestveit. Russia researcher at NUPI Julie Wilhelmsen Photo: Hanna Johre / news Prioritizing domestic politics and other conflicts Both researchers point out that domestic political challenges are to a greater extent outweighed by supporting Ukraine economically and militarily now, than when Russia invaded in February last year. – Western countries are beginning to accept that the war could last for many years, and then the donor landscape will look completely different, says Hellestveit. But what internal challenges are affecting their ability to deliver support? – The USA is in election mode, while the EU is in a centralization battle which is not about Ukraine, but which is causing a lot of unrest, says Hellestveit. Conflict and international law researcher Cecilie Hellestveit Photo: Hans Ivar Moss Kolseth / news The European economy is also not in good shape these days. – Here there is a risk of quite low growth, says Hellestveit. US President Joe Biden also faces major challenges with his aid package, but in different ways than the leaders in the EU. In September, over 200,000 arrests were made for illegal border crossings between the US and Mexico. It is the second highest figure that has ever been recorded in a month, writes the Associated Press. The Republicans are using the need for Ukraine support as a bargaining chip to get stricter border controls between the countries. – The US is in an election year. It gives some special framework for what the American administration has the opportunity to support. Also because the war in Ukraine is seen in some segments as secondary. Something the Europeans should take responsibility for, says Hellestveit. In several EU countries, the fear of Ukrainian competition leads to greater and greater contradictions, says Hellestveit. In Poland, for example, farmers and truck drivers are now blocking a border crossing in order to pressure their elected officials to prevent the import of cheap Ukrainian grain and competition from Ukrainian transport companies, writes Politico. – When you see the Ukrainian economy as a threat to one’s own industry in the home country, it also affects the willingness to give in European countries, says Hellestveit. – Neither the EU nor the US can afford, in the sense of being able to prioritize, a war in Ukraine which will become a money drain in the insurmountable future. In the EU, the economy probably won’t tolerate it, while the US has a much greater value to manage, she says. Israel and Palestine take attention from Ukraine Both researchers point out that the war in the Middle East requires money and attention, which would otherwise have gone to Ukraine. – It is a fact that the war in the Middle East and the uncertainty surrounding the risk of escalation, other types of conflicts elsewhere, mean that both the attention, but also the will to focus so heavily on Ukraine is about to change, says Hellestveit. – The USA has gone very far, by both saying that they will support Ukraine “as long as it takes” and that this war is about all the western democracies, the freedom of all of us. But it is not certain that this will be followed up, says Wilhelmsen. – No doubt that the winter will be tough When asked how she envisions the next few months in Ukraine, the Russian researcher replies that it is difficult to know. Ukrainian authorities did not release much information about the stand. – But there are a number of reports that point to the fact that it could get really bad, says Wilhelmsen. news recently wrote about very high casualty figures on the Russian side. Neither the Russian nor the Ukrainian authorities share their own casualty figures in the war. But in addition to the challenges surrounding the postponement of financial support from the US and the EU, and the need for military support for Ukraine, Wilhelmsen says that there have also “probably been very high casualty figures on the Ukrainian side” recently. – And Ukraine has less than a third as many people to take off as Russia, says Wilhelmsen. The Ukrainian state is also struggling with a weak economy, he says. – Some even say that Ukraine could be on the verge of a kind of state economic collapse, says Wilhelmsen. – If they are going to be able to run the state in a war situation, they are dependent on being able to pay doctors, teachers and so on. In addition, it is likely that there will be new Russian attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure, as we saw last winter, which could affect power supplies and everything one needs to survive the winter. – So it’s a tough winter the Ukrainians are facing, there’s no doubt about that, says Wilhelmsen.
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Julie Wilhelmsen and Cecilie Hellestveit on delayed aid packages and the status of the war in Ukraine – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
