In total, the USA has contributed more than NOK 800 billion to the Ukrainian war effort. Now there may be an end to the vital cash flow. In June, a survey found that nearly half of the American population thought it was time to cut aid. According to a new report from the Kiel institute, the value of promises of help from support players has not been lower since the new year 2022. The institute emphasizes that this may change if large aid packages are soon approved. The proposal for such a package from the USA, with aid to both Ukraine and Israel, was recently stopped in the Senate. President Biden is aware that money for Ukraine cannot wait. He believes that Putin will not give up on victory in Ukraine, but that he can go as far as attacking a NATO country. In a chronicle published in DN and Stratagem earlier this autumn, Anders Romarheim, associate professor at the Norwegian Defense Academy, wrote that the failing support from the USA constitutes an existential threat to Ukraine. – It sounds extreme, but I think it is rather too moderate than too extreme. The increasing autocratization of the USA is an existential threat to the whole of Europe, not just Ukraine, says Romarheim to news. – If the USA, the strongest boy in the class, withdraws, it will give the Russian morale a boost. At the same time, Ukraine will feel that the US has abandoned them, says associate professor Anders Romarheim. Photo: Emma-Marie B. Whittaker / news Polarization and expensive times There are several factors that cause war support to break down, Romarheim explains: A softening towards the authoritarian In particular in the USA, but also in European countries, one sees that basic democratic values are less important than for. A report from Freedom House believes that democracy worldwide is on the decline, while authoritarian actors are on the rise. – In this way, it may become less important to stand up to autocrats like Putin. Trump’s foreign policy Trump was tough on China and Iran, but soft on Putin and the Kremlin. The Republican Party is more concerned about China than Russia. Romarheim believes that was, and is, a misjudgment, and something that helped form the backdrop for Putin daring to enter Ukraine. – The US was so preoccupied with China that Putin probably did not believe that the US would stand by and break with Ukraine, as they have done until this autumn. Ukraine as a “Biden/NATO project” and expensive time The Republicans see that the war in Ukraine is costly. Budgetary discipline and public spending have become part of the exchange of words around Ukraine in a way that is not the case when talking about Israel. – Both the Israel issue and the American economy are higher on the list of priorities in the Republican Party. In addition, many Republicans see the US’s support for Ukraine as a Biden/NATO project. – Trump and the right-wing in the Republican party are against almost everything to do with Biden, and are at best indifferent to NATO. Some are outspoken opponents. The fact that Donald Trump would maintain more contact with Putin and the Kremlin, Romarheim believes, helps form the backdrop for the invasion of Ukraine. Photo: Susan Walsh / AP Europe may have to fend for itself If Trump is elected president in 2024, Romarheim believes that Europe will have to fend for itself. He calls it an “existential crisis”. – For several hundred years, Europe has considered itself ill-equipped to ensure continued peace on the continent, and to keep threats under control. If the US ends up “giving up” Ukraine, Romarheim believes it is impossible to predict what it will mean for European and global security. But it will clearly give Putin increased defining power over the European security order, and have a strong signaling effect. – If China sees that the West is trying hard, but is not successful in standing up to someone who uses military power to take over a neighboring country, then they will need sedatives in Taiwan, so to speak. A cut in support from the US will be the best news Putin can get, says Romarheim. In parts of the Republican Party, support for Ukraine is seen as a Biden project. The president is clear that money for Ukraine “cannot wait”. Photo: KEVIN LAMARQUE / Reuters Attacks on NATO countries more likely As mentioned, Biden fears that Putin will not give up on victory in Ukraine, but that he will be able to attack a NATO country. – It is clearly more probable than before. It was completely improbable for a long time, says Romarheim. NATO is the gold standard for defense alliances. NATO has never given up territory to external threats. – I agree with those who say that Russia will be reduced for a long time as a result of the bloody wounds they have sustained in Ukraine, regardless of the outcome, says Romarheim and continues: – But if Russia were to win the war, it would be very ominous for countries like Moldova, for example, where Transnistria can come into play. Several intelligence leaders have warned against such a scenario, and the consequences it will have for international security and national security in the USA. – But it does not appear in the debates and election campaign rhetoric that characterizes the Republican primary election. There are different decibel levels on these sides in the debate, says Romarheim.
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