Terms such as climate change and climate crisis create both fear, anger and concern among people. Many also sense hopelessness, and that it is already “too late” to save our planet. But if we are to believe a number of climate experts, there is hope – even if a new report paints a rather gloomy picture. Because over the past year, around 200 researchers have collaborated to identify some of the biggest challenges we face. They have also come up with advice on how we can best deal with them. Thinks it is critical In 2023, we have witnessed a number of climate-based events that cause concern. And several of these have also been the backdrop for the new report. Among other things, the heat waves that have ravaged large parts of Asia, the massive loss of sea ice in Antarctica and Canadian forest fires the likes of which have not been experienced before are mentioned here. The pace and scale of these events have made the English term “tipping points”, or in Norwegian tipping point, very relevant. The phenomenon is described as when a small change makes a big difference to a (global) system. The changes can cause major damage, and they can be irreversible. Tipping points in the climate are about systems in nature changing little by little before they reach a final threshold. Manjana Milkoreit is a researcher at the University of Oslo. She is one of many who have contributed to the new report. Photo: BRIAN POWELL A major threat Not much research should have been done on such climatic tipping points. But this is precisely what the researchers behind the new report have looked at. They have identified more than 25 such systems and found that five of these are currently very critical. Much due to the increasing global warming. – Such tipping points in the climate context pose threats of a magnitude we have never encountered before, says Professor Tim Lenton. He is employed by Exeter’s Global Systems Institute and is one of the main men behind the report. – They can trigger devastating domino effects, including the loss of entire ecosystems. It can lead to societal consequences such as political instability and financial collapse. Global systems at the tipping point The researchers write that the five critical points that have been identified are the following: The sea ice in Greenland The sea ice in the west of Antarctica Permafrost that is melting rapidly Warm water corals that are disappearing The sub-polar current vortex (Gulf Stream) These could be the consequences If the two sea ices were to collapse , it could cause the sea level to rise as much as ten meters during the next 1,000 years. Until the year 2100, this could cause the sea level to rise from under 1 meter to over 2 metres, the researchers write. This will have major consequences for a number of coastal nations. If the permafrost thaws, it can cause large emissions of greenhouse gases which will in turn make the world warmer and thaw even more of the permafrost. This could have direct consequences for certain areas in Norway, according to the researchers. If the warm water corals die out, this will disrupt the marine ecology to a significant extent. In addition, approximately half a billion people in the world depend on these reefs as part of their livelihood. The North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) may soon collapse, the researchers write. It can lead to cooling in certain areas. This gyre causes changes in weather patterns and can lead to more extreme weather, including in Europe. Regarding this point, the researchers write that there is great uncertainty about when this threshold is reached. The Greenland ice sheet is melting rapidly, which worries scientists. Photo: Brennan Linsley / AP Important, but uncertain Jan Sigurd Fuglestvedt is a researcher and employee at CICERO (Centre for Climate Research). He is also a member of the leadership of the UN Climate Panel. He says that research in this area is good, but that it is important to have a clear framework and definition. And not least focus on which timescales are involved. – There is generally broad agreement and a good understanding of important processes in the climate system, but there are different views on the concept of “tipping points” and how useful this is, he says. Fuglestvedt goes on to say that the UN Climate Panel has focused more on irreversible and abrupt changes, and that they have studied these processes from such a perspective. – The UN climate panel writes that there are several potential, irreversible changes that can be triggered, and that the probability increases with the level of warming. And let me add that there are great uncertainties here. More knowledge about this is very valuable, says the climate expert. Jan Sigurd Fuglestvedt says that the concept of tipping points is well known in the research community, but that there is some disagreement as to how it should be used. Photo: MELISSA WALSHIPCC What should we do? On Wednesday this week, the researchers behind the new report presented the content at a press conference during the COP28 climate conference in Dubai. UiO researcher Manjana Milkoreit has been primarily responsible for looking at which solutions can save our planet. – Much can and should be done to meet the threats from these tipping points. Our most important recommendation is that global efforts within the framework of the Paris Agreement must accelerate, she says. This means that there must be a change in the direction of rapid phasing out of fossil fuels. Here, the researchers believe there should be a complete stop by 2050. At the same time, we must prepare for potential consequences of such processes which may not be avoidable, explains Milkoreit. She says that vulnerability to such risks can be reduced, but that you must then work together to meet them. Furthermore, the researchers behind the new report believe that deepening the knowledge about such tipping points is necessary. They propose a global summit on the topic. – It’s never too late. It may well be that we reach 1.5 degrees of global warming, but that does not mean that we cannot bring this temperature down again, says the UiO researcher. You can read the new report in its entirety here. By the year 2050, experts believe that we must have completely cut the use of fossil fuels.
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Big report: Five climate systems in the world are about to collapse
