On November 30, it breaks loose in Dubai. Then the UN’s annual climate summit starts. 2,000 negotiators will work day and night to find measures that can keep the global temperature well below 2 degrees, preferably to 1.5 compared to pre-industrial times. The countries have committed themselves to this through the Paris Agreement. But according to scientists from Cicero, 1.5 degrees will be passed within a short time, first for individual years and then for global warming over time. The climate summit in Dubai starts in a week. Photo: Amr Alfiky/File Photo / Reuters – Acknowledging that we will cross 1.5 degrees is not a call to give up, it is a powerful call to act, write five researchers at Cicero in a chronicle. It was Aftenposten that first reported the findings, which are based on a series of observations. May exceed 1.5 degrees this year The year 2023 is set to be the warmest year ever recorded. There have been heat record after heat record in several places in the world. Cicero believes that the strong increase in temperature in 2023 is among the reasons why, in some analyses, we will already reach 1.5 degrees this year. It is hot in Brazil and a number of cities and towns are experiencing major challenges. Photo: Michael Dantas / AFP The researchers also refer to the weather phenomenon El Niño when they write that in 2024 all temperature analyzes will probably show that 1.5 degrees will be reached. In the past, scientists have warned that 1.5 degrees will be exceeded sometime in the 2030s. Crossing 1.5 degrees in one year does not mean that you have failed. It is only if the average over ten years is 1.5. But the Cicero researchers believe that the recent warm years show that we are also rapidly approaching this temperature limit. And the global temperature will continue to rise if greenhouse gases are not reduced. Cicero believes that the use of coal, oil and gas has reached record levels, and that the associated CO₂ emissions continue to rise. Record high greenhouse gases – Despite decades of warnings from the scientific community, thousands of pages of reports and tens of thousands of climate conference, we are still steering in the wrong direction. The general secretary of VMO, Petteri Taalas, said that last week. Petteri Taalas from WMO. Photo: Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP Then the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) presented a report which showed that greenhouse gases which contribute to global warming had again reached new heights. In 2022, concentrations of CO₂ in the atmosphere were for the first time 50 percent higher than pre-industrial times. The increase has continued into 2023. The heat is coming According to the Cicero researchers, it takes time before the increase in greenhouse gases manifests itself as changes in the global ground temperature. The delay is largely due to the fact that it takes time to warm up the sea. The ice is melting in Greenland. Photo: Olivier Morin / AFP According to Cicero, this will mean that there will be significant additional warming over the next decade. And on top of what is called “unrealized warming”, there are still large emissions of greenhouse gases, which cause further warming. Brazil is experiencing extreme heat now in November. Photo: Pilar Olivares TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY / Reuters There is also another reason why the warming will go faster according to the scientists. It is about tiny particles in the atmosphere called aerosols, which are part of air pollution. The particles have a cooling effect on the climate, as they prevent sunlight from reaching the ground. Many countries are now cleaning up pollution, and thus there will be less of this artificial cooling. Lack of climate measures Ahead of the climate summit, the world’s countries have submitted targets for emission cuts. On Monday, a report came from the UN Environment Program (UNEP) which investigated the effects of these targets. The conclusion was not happy. If all the countries reach the specific targets they have set without conditions, the world is probably on the way to 2.9 degrees of warming. Photo: Michael Probst, File / AP According to the report, such a strong warming can be described as catastrophic. Large parts of the world may become practically uninhabitable, the melting of the ice in the polar regions will accelerate, and parts of the Amazon rainforest may disappear. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is asking world leaders to tighten emission targets and take dramatic measures to stop warming more quickly.
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The world is not avoiding 1.5 degrees – news Norway – Overview of news from different parts of the country
