The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) on Wednesday presented the fourth report on what they call the production gap. That is to say, the gap between the objectives in the Paris Agreement and what plans are in place for the production of fossil fuels. The report shows that the gap between the plans and the climate targets in 2030 is large and that it has grown larger in two years: The plans are to produce more than double (110 per cent) of what is compatible with the 1.5 degree target. The plans are to produce 68 percent more than is compatible with the 2.0 degree target. The latter is a sharp increase from the report in 2021. Then there were plans to produce 45 percent more than what is compatible with 2.0 degrees. The production gap for oil until the year 2050. The red line shows governments’ plans and projections. The green field and line show what is in line with the 2.0 degree target and the blue line shows what is in line with the 1.5 degree target. Photo: Unep Warmest in 120,000 years The report comes after the world experienced the hottest month on record this summer. This year’s month of July was probably the warmest the world has experienced in 120,000 years, writes the UN. The result was a summer with deadly heat waves, drought, forest fires, storms and floods, writes Unep. 90 percent of the CO₂ emissions that have led to warming come from fossil fuels, writes the EU service Copernicus. The report says that the world should reduce the production of oil and gas by 75 percent by 2050. And that is a minimum. Photo: Reuters 460 per cent increase in coal Coal is considered the worst CO₂ fuel. Here, it is planned to produce 460 percent more coal in 2030 than the 1.5 degree target allows. The production of coal then appears to decrease, but in the case of oil and gas it is expected to increase in 2050. The report has also considered the 20 largest producers of fossil fuels. Among these are Saudi Arabia, the USA, Russia and Norway. 17 of these countries have set themselves the goal of becoming a zero-emissions country in 2050. None of them has put forward binding plans on how to reduce production in line with the 1.5 degree target. Plans and projections for Norwegian oil and gas production up to 2050. The dashed red line is a possible scenario with higher recovery. Photo: Unep Looking at Norway Norway is one of the countries that the report looks at in particular. Norway is today the world’s 12th largest producer of oil and the 8th largest producer of gas. The report indicates that Norwegian production of oil and gas will decline significantly towards 2050. Nevertheless, according to Norwegian estimates, a good amount of oil and gas will still be produced in 2050. At the same time, it is indicated that Norway has no strategy for discontinuing the production of oil and gas. On the contrary, it is the government’s policy to “develop” the oil industry. Climate Committee 2050 Last Friday, the Norwegian Climate Committee 2050 published its report “Transition to low emissions – options for climate policy towards 2050”. The committee recommended not looking for more oil until a plan to phase out oil and gas extraction is in place. Shortly after the committee presented its report, the proposal to draw up a plan for phasing out was flatly rejected by Jonas Gahr Støre. – We are not going to stop the development of the Norwegian continental shelf, said Støre. Norway’s greenhouse gas emissions and climate targets measured in million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents60 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents? Click for explanation of CO₂ equivalents. Norway’s climate target 23.1 million tonnes annually Go to news’s Climate Status What is Norway’s climate target? By 2030, Norway must cut at least 55 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels. The goal is to be achieved in cooperation with the EU. By 2050, 90-95 per cent of Norwegian emissions must be cut. This means that we must cut emissions at record speed. In the last ten years we have managed to cut around 5 million tonnes, in the next ten we will cut around 25 million tonnes. How will Norway reach the climate target? Norway must cut emissions in two ways, because the sources of emissions can be divided into two: Emissions subject to a quota: This are particularly emissions from industry and the oil/gas platforms. The emissions are covered by the EU’s quota system: In order to emit greenhouse gases, the industry must buy permits (quotas) in the EU at the price determined by the quota market. Steadily higher prices and fewer allowances will force emissions cuts where it is easiest to implement. Non-eligible emissions: These are greenhouse gas emissions from, among other things, transport, agriculture, waste and heating in buildings. This is called the non-quota-obligatory sector because you do not need quotas to release greenhouse gases. How Norway can cut emissions in this sector is described in the specialist report “Climate cure 2030”. The politicians decide which of the measures from the report are to be implemented. Norway can also cut non-quota-obligatory emissions by paying for emission cuts in other European countries. The government says that it plans to meet the targets without using this option, but it can be used if it becomes “strictly necessary”. For Norway, the emissions in the two sectors are roughly the same: in 2019, they released around 25 million tonnes of greenhouse gases each .What happens if Norway does not reach the climate target? It could be politically embarrassing. A likely solution is that Norway chooses to pay for emission cuts in other countries. Norway can also be subject to sanctions if we do not reach the targets we have agreed with the EU. Norway must regularly report cuts to the UN, in line with the targets set in the Paris Agreement. Here, no sanctions are stipulated for those who do not fulfill their obligations.
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The world’s plans for coal, oil and gas are twice the 1.5 degree target – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
