The Paris Agreement currently obliges 194 countries to limit the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees, preferably to 1.5 compared to pre-industrial levels. Today we were once again reminded of how we intend to reach this goal. The UN member states came up with a kind of track report, “The global stocktake”. From this year, we will receive such a track report every five years. For now, we are far from being on track. – We need much more action now, in all areas and from all actors, if the long-term goals in the Paris Agreement are to be achieved, says the review. – The window is closing quickly, it continues. Secretary-General of the World Wildlife Fund WWF, Karoline Andaur, calls the report a “marching order”. – The new report from the Climate Convention should be a marching order for politicians to raise their climate ambitions and speed up the transition, she says. Secretary General of WWF Karoline Andaur. Photo: Haakon Nordvik Basis for the summit in Dubai “Global Stocktake” has been named “The global review” in Norwegian, and began at the climate summit in Glasgow in 2021. It has therefore taken two years to complete. And this track report is important, because at the climate summit in Dubai in November and December, the politicians will have to respond to the results it shows. They will also have to negotiate solutions to get the world on the right course. In particular, the work of developing countries for climate adaptation will be an important topic during the summit, the report states. – Here I would like Norway to look at this report and bring a little more ambitious goals with it to Dubai, says Sigrun Gjerløw to news. She is the general manager of the environmental foundation Zero. Managing director of Environmental Foundation Zero, Sigrun Gjerløw Aasland. Photo: Caroline Dokken Wendelborg / Zero In particular, she hopes that the Norwegian delegation can come up with greater ambitions for climate finance for developing countries, and greater plans for carbon capture. These are the goals of the Paris Agreement Under the Paris Agreement from 2015, the world’s nations have committed to cutting emissions and thereby limiting global warming to a maximum of 2 degrees, and preferably 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial times. Global warming was 1.14 degrees on average between 2013 and 2022, so there is not much wiggle room left. If we are to reach the final target of 1.5 degrees, we must cut global greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent compared to 2019, when we released a total of 55 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalents. The climate gases we must cut are mainly CO₂, but also, for example, methane (CH4), which is a common product of agriculture. But instead of declining, global emissions appear to have remained stable or increased in recent years. In 2022, we released 58 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalents, more than ever before. The Paris Agreement’s goal is for this increase to stop before 2025. Sources: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Research article: Indicators for climate change in 2022 (Earth System Science Data, Copernicus), Tracking emissions by country and sector (Brookings, November 2022). Important messages for Norway The review shows, among other things, that we need a much faster transition to green energy, more funding for green measures, and that oil and gas must be phased out. Advisor Aled Fisher in the Norwegian Nature Conservation Association points to the last point in particular as being very interesting for a Norwegian audience. – Systems with net zero emissions require that all fossil fuels must be stopped, unless the emissions are captured and stored, emphasizes the report. Aled Fisher is an adviser at the Nature Conservation Association. – The most interesting and relevant thing for Norway is how clear the UN is about phasing out, not just phasing out, all fossil fuels, says Fisher. Norway’s greenhouse gas emissions and climate targets measured in million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents60 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents? Click for explanation of CO₂ equivalents. Norway’s climate target 23.1 million tonnes annually Go to news’s Climate Status What is Norway’s climate target? By 2030, Norway must cut at least 55 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels. The goal is to be achieved in cooperation with the EU. By 2050, 90-95 per cent of Norwegian emissions must be cut. This means that we must cut emissions at record speed. In the last ten years we have managed to cut around 5 million tonnes, in the next ten we will cut around 25 million tonnes. How will Norway reach the climate target? Norway must cut emissions in two ways, because the sources of emissions can be divided into two: Emissions subject to a quota: This are particularly emissions from industry and the oil/gas platforms. The emissions are covered by the EU’s quota system: In order to emit greenhouse gases, the industry must buy permits (quotas) in the EU at the price determined by the quota market. Steadily higher prices and fewer quotas will force emissions cuts where it is easiest to implement. Non-quota-obligatory emissions: These are greenhouse gas emissions from, among other things, transport, agriculture, waste and heating in buildings. This is called the non-quota-obligatory sector because you do not need quotas to release greenhouse gases. How Norway can cut emissions in this sector is described in the specialist report “Climate cure 2030”. The politicians decide which of the measures from the report are to be implemented. Norway can also cut non-quota-obligatory emissions by paying for emission cuts in other European countries. The government says that it plans to meet the targets without using this option, but it can be used if it becomes “strictly necessary”. For Norway, the emissions in the two sectors are roughly the same: in 2019, they released around 25 million tonnes of greenhouse gases each .What happens if Norway does not reach the climate target? It could be politically embarrassing. A likely solution is that Norway chooses to pay for emission cuts in other countries. Norway can also be subject to sanctions if we do not reach the targets we have agreed with the EU. Norway must regularly report cuts to the UN, in line with the targets set in the Paris Agreement. Here, no sanctions are stipulated for those who do not fulfill their obligations. In addition, the report shows that subsidies for fossil energy must be removed, that carbon capture is no substitute for emission cuts, and that rich countries should take the lead with effective climate action, emphasizes Fisher. – The document is clear that there are no exceptions or excuses. It does not allow for the arguments we often hear in Norway that Norway, and only Norway, should continue with oil extraction for the longest time, says Fisher. Climate and Environment Minister Espen Barth Eide tells news that he will familiarize himself with the report before commenting on its content. Major cuts required Global emissions must be almost halved by 2030 for the world to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees. For now, it’s going the wrong way. Emissions are still increasing worldwide. In its latest synthesis report, the UN’s climate panel looked at climate policy from 2020. With this course, we are moving towards more than 3 degrees of warming by 2100. If warming is to be limited to 1.5 or 2 degrees, emissions must fall very quickly. Graphic: UN climate panel/news Previous figures from the Norwegian Environment Agency show that Norwegian emissions are falling, but not enough to reach the targets. – Much higher ambitions in the national targets are necessary to cut emissions faster, the review states. In addition, climate adaptation will be necessary if societies and ecosystems are to cope with the climate impacts that are already here and are expected to get worse. In the climate part of the party leaders’ debate in Arendal, the party leaders were told to raise their hands if they think Norway is well on its way to achieving the climate goals. UN climate chief Simon Stiell has previously written that the global review will just be “another report”, unless governments actually manage to act on what emerges. Points to significant progress At the same time that the global review emphasizes that the world is in a bad time, it also reminds us that we have already achieved a great deal. – Since the Rio Convention in 1992, significant progress has been made, the report states. The world was on a course towards 3.7 to 4.8 degrees of warming in 2010, while after the Paris Agreement we were on a course towards 3.0 to 3.2 degrees of warming. In 2021, we were on a course towards 2.6 to 2.7 degrees of warming, the authors emphasize. – The awareness and knowledge base about climate change has never been higher, it also says. – The review is an important reminder that climate policy works, and that the Paris Agreement has initiated many good processes, says Sigrun Gjerløw. Different from the UN climate panel’s synthesis report The conclusions in the global review are mostly already known. In March, the scientists in the UN climate panel came up with their latest synthesis report. There was the message that the world had to step up its climate action, and that it had to happen before 2030. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was at the forefront of the wording when the Climate Panel came up with its latest synthesis report in March. Photo: MICHELE SPATARI / AFP – In short: The world needs climate action on all fronts. Everything, at once, said UN Secretary-General António Guterres. The report came with a long list of all measures necessary to reach the climate goals. The Climate Panel’s reports have also shaped some of the basis for the Global Review, but now it is the member states themselves who have discussed this factual basis. – Global Stocktake is not in itself a “game changer”. It is how the authorities choose to use the report that will be decisive, says Karoline Andaur of the World Wide Fund for Nature.
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– We need much more action now – news – Klima
