The fall of the Center Party does not reverse. The Labor Party is declining the most and is now on a par with the January support, while in May they seemed to have reversed the trend. The Conservatives are the country’s largest party for the sixth month in a row. The block position is very even. The Conservatives, the Greens, the Liberals and the Christian Democrats would lack one representative to have a majority in the Storting. The Labor Party, the Socialist People’s Party and the Socialist People’s Party are 12 seats away from the majority. The three parties won 89 seats in the election, but have only 73 now. Thus, LO would not get its dream government, if there were elections now during the LO congress. None of the changes to Norstat’s June barometer for NRK and Aftenposten are greater than the statistical error margins, compared with the previous survey. Today, an election result would require that the three parties also joined the Red and MDGs to form a majority. Or to put it another way: With this as an election result, the MDGs could tilt the parliamentary majority to the bourgeois side, if they, as a bloc-independent party, wanted to overthrow Prime Minister Støre. Prior to the publication of this poll on the last May day of the year, there was a bourgeois majority on the average of the polls this month. The block position has gone from 68-110 (plus Patient Focus) to Storting seats to a “dead race” in less than six months. It is a dramatically rapid and large fall for the left, first and foremost the two governing parties and in particular the Center Party. Fence record for Vedum May has been an extremely important month for the Center Party. The government has delivered this year’s most important issues in the core areas of agricultural policy and municipal finances. The Center Party’s Minister of Agriculture has delivered a record amount to Norwegian farmers and is well on its way to fulfilling election promises to many of the party’s core voters. The municipal economy is reportedly doing so well that the municipalities do not have to keep all the extra income. The Center Party, on the other hand, has not fared worse since January 2017 in Norstat’s polls for NRK and Aftenposten. Last spring, the party reached the top of these polls with 22.2 percent in March. The election campaign started at 17.1 percent and ended with 13.5 percent on election night. Now the party is down to 6.3 percent at the beginning of the summer holidays. It is lower than the average for May. This month’s record for Vedum is rather of the gloomy kind: For the first time, there are more than 100,000 Center Party voters sitting on the fence and have no idea what they would vote for if there were an election now. About every third voter is uncertain. Only a third of the SP voters last year stand by their party election. The rest disappears to other parties. Sp loses especially to the bourgeois side, 65,000 voters go back to the Conservatives or the FRP. This is more than the 45,000 Conservative and FRP voters from 2017 in our last poll before last year’s election night went to the Center Party. Vedum’s party must also see 22,000 voters go to government partner Ap. The Labor Party loses the spring gain The Labor Party started the year with 21.1 per cent support at the end of January, but received May support of 24.8 per cent. The extent to which this can be related to the government’s handling of the Ukraine war and the Prime Minister’s and Foreign Minister’s efforts is not known. Now the possible gain is possibly gone, because the Labor Party is back in the 21st century with 21.8 percent support. APS’s loyalty is 60 per cent, significantly higher than the Center Party’s, but too low to approach the election result of 26.3 per cent. 23 percent of voters from last year are sitting on the fence. There is a particular leak to the Conservatives (44,000 voters) and the Social Democrats (25,000 voters) which explains a possible slight decline for the Labor Party. It is mainly these different groups of voters that the Labor Party must keep in check; the so-called little voters who go between the two major parties on the one hand and voters who want more radical left-wing politics on the other. The two governing parties continue the decline. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB SV growth on the outside While both government parties lose support, it is the party that left the government negotiations that is progressing. A turnout of 9.7 percent would also be higher than last year’s election result. The LO leader still wants a majority government, while the SVs believe they will have just as much political impact outside the government offices. It may seem that voters also think this way. Next year, SV will discuss the NATO position. How this debate will affect the view of the party from old and new voters will be important for the dynamics on the left. Now SV has first and foremost bought itself time. Red is now significantly less than the top level of 8.9 percent, but still above the election result. Rødt has received a somewhat harsher response from the public for its handling of various political considerations in the wake of the Ukraine war. Right-wing largest The right-wing is the largest party and has been so throughout the calendar year in our polls. The main reason is that the party wins voters from both government parties. The Conservatives do not lose voters in large numbers to any other party. The situation around the barrier limit is the same as on election night. Red and Left are above, MDG and KrF below. Rødt and Venstre are also above their election results, while MDG and KrF do worse than on election night.
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Annual worst for Vedum – Ytring
