There is little doubt that President Vladimir Putin sits atop the Kremlin and Moscow, but even he does not make all decisions in a vacuum. Over the past year, we have become better acquainted with many of the Russian powerful figures: Lavrov, Shoigu, Medvedev – they are all high up in Russia. But it is not a given that the most famous faces are the most important influencers and sparring partners for the president. A bunch of high-ranking gentlemen make up the crème de la crème of the Kremlin today. A majority are Putin’s best friends from St. Petersburg. Photo: Erlend Aas / NTB – Russia is a “network state”. The most important thing is not your formal position, but who you know and what connections you have. So says Jakub M. Godzimirski, researcher at the Norwegian Foreign Policy Institute (NUPI) and expert on Russian foreign and security policy. Just after the outbreak of war last year, news surveyed Putin’s closest circle – Crème de la Kremlin. news has tried to draw a picture of what the real power structure in Russia looks like now, one year later. Many of the names remain, but the Russian elite is changing. Who is actually “inside” Putin? At the top of the power apparatus sits Putin. He has built a political landscape consisting of old friends and supporters under him. It is widely agreed that Secretary of the Security Council, Nikolay Patrushev, is the person who sits by far the closest to Putin. Also Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev and Igor Sechin, who owns it the Russian oil company Rosneft, are important sparring partners. The four are old friends from St. Petersburg. Putin has many important friends in business in Russia. Gennady Timchenko, Arkady Rotenberg, Sergey Chemezov and Yuri Kovalchuk lead some of Russia’s largest companies and banks. Last but not least, Putin has placed key people in various political positions: Prime Minister Mikhail Misjustin, Deputy Chief of Staff of the President, Sergey Kiriyenko, Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin and Minister of Defense Sergej Shoigu. Together they make up Putin’s so-called “Politburo 2.0”, a new version of the highest political leadership in the old Soviet Union. The network country With the graphic at the top of the article, one can imagine what Putin’s most important network looks like at the moment. The model does not show the official distribution of power in Russia, but what researchers call “network Russia”. – Everyone who follows Russia knows that the most important decisions are not made in the official institutions, but in more or less closed networks of people with positions that depend to a very large extent on whether they have access to those who sit at the top of the power pyramid, says Godzimirski. NUPI researcher Jakub Godzimirski says it is difficult to establish the distribution of power in Russia in a war situation. However, certain key people still leave. Photo: Christopher Olssøn There is also a distinction between a more inner and outer circle around Putin. Those who seem to be sitting closest now are Nikolay Patrushev and Igor Sechin. It is said that Putin usually likes to let people come to him with input, rather than giving direct orders. In this way, the supporters have to guess what the president wants to hear, and there can be internal competitions to give the input that appeals most to Putin’s instincts. Therefore, it is very important for the president to have people under him who understand him and whom he can trust. In the swipe below, you can get to know better what is called “Politburo 2.0”, a new edition of the political leadership of the Communist Party in the old Soviet Union. Nikolay Patrushev Secretary of the Security Council Nikolay Patrushev is by far Putin’s closest. The former FSB chief is on the same hard line as Putin in protecting the West, and is an important opinion trap for the president. Patrushev was also closely involved in the decision to invade Ukraine. Igor SechinDirector in the oil company Rosneft, one of Russia’s most important sources of income, and one of Putin’s closest friends from St. Petersburg. Sechin has had a number of different roles under Putin, and is referred to as the second most powerful person in Russia. Although he does not play many roles for at the time, he is an outspoken loyalist to Putin, says Professor Geir Flikke at UiO. Dmitrij MedvedevRussia’s former prime minister and deputy head of the Security Council, Dmitrij Medvedev, is also an old friend from St. Petersburg. Putin took him into the warmth of the capital at the end of 90s. Since then, Medvedev has held a number of different roles in politics and business. Gennady Timchenko Gennady Timchenko is another member of the gang from St. Petersburg, and a personal friend of Putin. He helped start the trading company Gunvor, which sold Russian oil abroad. Today, Timchenko is a co-owner of the Russian gas company Novatek. After the annexation of Crimea in 2014, he was sanctioned as a member of the Russian leadership’s inner circle. Arkady Rotenberg The oligarch Arkady Rotenberg is a good friend of Putin. They used to train judo together in St. Petersburg. He owns the company SGM Group, which makes oil and gas transport systems. Arkadij Rotenberg, together with his brother Boris, has been active in several areas of the business world, and was heavily involved in building the facilities for Winter Olympics in Sochi in 2014. Sergey Chemezov Sergey Chemezov knows Putin from when they served for the KGB (now FSB) in East Germany during the Cold War, and is today one of his closest associates. He is the head of the defense conglomerate Rostec, which controls most of the military industry and arms exports, and is one of the most important pieces in giving Putin control over the economy. Yuri Kovalchuk Yuri Kovalchuk is the chairman and largest shareholder of the major bank Rossiya, and known as Putin’s personal banker. The two spent a lot of time together when they isolated himself during the Covid-19 pandemic. Like many others in “Politburo 2.0”, he is a close friend of Putin from St. Petersburg. Among other things, he hosted the wedding of Putin’s daughter.Sergey SobyaninSergey Sobyanin is the mayor of Moscow, and thus belongs to the part of “Politburo 2.0” that are actually politicians.He has been important in giving Putin more control, by restricting and limit the freedom of the media, the opposition and ordinary Russians.Sergei Shoigu The most famous of Putin’s Sergeis these days is probably Defense Minister Shoigu. He has been a key player in the war in Ukraine. During the Wagner uprising in June, it was among others Shoigu the mercenary leader Prigozhin wanted to depose. He has also gradually become good friends with the president, and the two have spent lazy days fishing and sunbathing together. Mikhail MisjustinMikhail Misjustin is Prime Minister of Russia. He has had several different roles in politics over the years. Misjustin has also held top jobs in the business world, and headed the tax administration in Russia. Sergey KirijenkoSergey Kirijenko is first deputy head of the presidential administration, and works closely with Putin. He is a former prime minister of Russia, and headed the nuclear power company Rosatom. He too has held several top jobs in business and politics. “Top dog” Head of Secretariat Nikolay Patrushev in Russia’s Security Council appears right now as Putin’s decided “top dog”. – He is certainly in the innermost circle, and is referred to as a member of the circle that “created” Putin, says Geir Flikke, professor at the University of Oslo (UiO). The former head of the FSB security service is on the same hard line as Putin in his defense of the West and Ukraine. He thus becomes an important opinion trap for the increasingly isolated president, believes the NUPI researcher. Nikolai Patrushev is by far Putin’s closest supporter. They are particularly united in their opinions about the West and Ukraine. Photo: Yuri Kochetkov / AP According to Godzimirski, it is also said that Patrushev greatly influenced Putin’s decision to recognize the Ukrainian breakaway republics as independent, and launch the invasion war against the country. When the Security Council in Russia met for the last time before the outbreak of war, Patrushev claimed to Putin that the US was behind the tensions in eastern Ukraine, and that the Americans wanted to orchestrate the collapse of Russia. In addition, the Patrushev family may play a key role when Putin is to be replaced one day. – Someone who many mention as a possible successor is the son of Nikolaj Patrushev, says the NUPI researcher. Dmitry Patrushev, Minister of Agriculture and son of Putin’s “top dog”, is being launched as one of the hottest candidates to take over as president when the time is right. Photo: Alexei Druzhinin / AP He believes that who will replace Putin is a good indicator of who is most important to him. – One must expect that Putin will point out someone who will not harm his interests if he wants to relinquish formal power. Economic control An important function of “Politburo 2.0” is to ensure Putin almost full control over the economy. He does this through acquaintances with actors such as Igor Sechin, Gennady Timchenko, Arkady Rotenberg and Sergej Chemesov. – The institutions have a certain power, but primarily because they are managed by people who have good relations with Putin because they are friends or the like, says Godzimirski. Vladimir Putin applauds his old friend and key supporter Igor Sechin. He is the head of Russia’s largest state-owned oil company. Photo: Sergei Karpukhin / Reuters A majority of the top managers know each other from various posts in St. Petersburg. Russia expert Flikke explains that they are disposed of as needed. – This circuit’s functions are very dependent on what is the prevailing need at any given time. A weakened Putin Although Putin always tops the list of the 100 most influential Russians – with good reason – many believe that his position has been seriously weakened. Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt (Ap) believes that Putin lost face as a result of the Wagner rebellion. – Putin’s authority is largely built on the fact that he is a strong leader who can deliver calm. Putin is a weakened leader as we see it now, she said in Political Quarter after the weekend of chaos. Highly trained mercenaries from the Wagner group moved into Russia at the weekend. Putin’s handling afterwards makes him appear weakened, many believe. Photo: Reuters Ine Eriksen Søreide (H), head of the foreign affairs and defense committee in the Storting and former foreign minister, agrees. – It is quite obvious that the fact that a column with Prigozhin and his soldiers is allowed to come so close to Moscow without being stopped is surprising and a sign that Putin does not have the control he has had, Søreide said in the same broadcast. – One should not ignore the fact that what happens in the short term may lead to Putin making changes in the military leadership that may seem sustainable internally, but may not be externally. Normality and stability Helge Blakkisrud, associate professor of Russian Studies at the University of Oslo, researches Russian domestic politics. He, for his part, believes that the Wagner uprising will not have anything to do with the power structure in Russia in the short term. – Putin wants to show that he is in control. Thus, I think he will wait to take greater action in terms of replacements in the military leadership so as not to give the impression of having given in to Prigozhin’s demands. Helge Blakkisrud thinks Putin will have ice in his stomach after the Wagner rebellion. Photo: NUPI – In the long term, then? – Then there will certainly be changes. But I think the Kremlin wants to get this situation out of the way before they make major changes. They will try to give the impression that everything is still as normal and stable as possible. The next generation The Russian president is also getting older. He turns 71 in October. – Although he is still in relatively good physical shape, he is aware that the time will come when he will either have to throw in the towel, or that biology will have its say, says Godzimirski. That is why it is now said that Putin and “Politburo 2.0” are looking for the next generation elite, the new Crème de la Kremlin. Putin and the rest of his elite will have a lot to think about when they will one day assemble the new elite. Perhaps they will be known as “Politburo 3.0”. Photo: GAVRIIL GRIGOROV / AFP They must keep their tongues straight in their mouths when they choose. – They will get key people in place who can continue in the same track when the older ones retire. It is also about personal safety, says Godzimirski. – They know that if another group were to take power in Russia, they would dig deep into what happened under Putin, uncover a number of things and perhaps prosecute them. Sources: Jakub Godzimirski (NUPI), Geir Flikke (UiO), Free Russia Forum, Nezavisimaja Gazeta, Minchenko, Wikipedia.
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