It was impossible, the Russians claimed. So when Ukraine apparently shot down a so-called hypersonic missile with the American Patriot air defense system, many were surprised. That something is hypersonic means that it moves five times faster than the sound barrier. The American Patriot system has done better than anyone thought in Ukraine, according to experts. The missile that was allegedly shot down is called the Kinzjal, and Vladimir Putin has boasted a lot about this “superweapon.” But now it was apparently possible to shoot down. Will this demonstration of the surprisingly effective air defense change the balance of terror between the nuclear powers? Russia was disappointed Balance of terror means that no one uses nuclear weapons because the nuclear powers know that if they use nuclear weapons, they themselves will be wiped out in a follow-up attack, or so-called second type attack. If one of the actors can defend itself completely against a nuclear attack, this terrorist balance will break. The further development of American missile defense has led to Russia constantly developing new means of delivery for strategic nuclear weapons. Vladimir Putin presented a number of new nuclear weapons systems that will be able to counter American air defense in 2018. Among other things, Russia’s faith in American air defense has led to the development of more advanced ballistic missiles, hypersonic gliders and the long-range nuclear torpedo Poseidon. But the experts are not as sure as Russia that American technology can protect against a nuclear attack. Ole Jørgen Maaø has an officer background as an anti-aircraft artilleryman, and now works as an associate professor at the Norwegian Air Force School. Ole Jørgen Maaø does not think the Americans have the technology to protect themselves against nuclear weapons. Photo: Forsvarets Høgskole He thinks the Russians were disappointed when the Patriot system managed to shoot down the Kinzjal missiles. – I think the Russians thought Kinzjal would not allow himself to be shot down, he explains. – It is a potential PR scoop that Patriot was able to shoot down the hypersonic missiles, if that is correct, he says. But it has been known for quite some time that Patriot has the opportunity to do so. The Kinzjal missiles are among the weapons that Putin has boasted about the most. But Ukraine is said to have succeeded in shooting them down. Photo: AP He believes these new so-called hypersonic ballistic missiles have an undeserved good reputation. The vast majority of missiles of this type have been hypersonic for a long time. – Some of the “hype” surrounding hypersonic missiles should be taken with a grain of salt. Ballistic missiles have been hypersonic for a long time, he explains. In short, ballistic missiles are rockets that shoot an explosive charge through the air and in a trajectory that passes through the atmosphere and is affected only by gravity. They may also have control mechanisms and be influenced by these. The mayor of Kyiv shows what is supposed to be the remains of a downed “hypersonic” missile. – That the Patriot can shoot down hypersonic missiles is no surprise. I don’t think there are ballistic missiles that aren’t hypersonic, says the scientist. But if you can shoot down these missiles, can you also shoot down nuclear weapons? – In principle, there is no difference between shooting down a missile with a nuclear warhead, he explains. But the Patriot has a short range when it comes to shooting down ballistic missiles. Most air defense systems are most effective in relation to cruise missiles, aircraft, helicopters and larger drones, explains the researcher. – Here they are very effective and there we have to say that they have overachieved compared to what was thought before the war. Maaø says that the American ability to shoot down Kinzjal shows that over a limited area you can have a usable defense against a first-strike attack with nuclear weapons. But he argues that even Ukraine is difficult to defend with these systems because of the limited range and quantity of systems required. And if you look at an even bigger country like the USA, it is even more difficult. There are also many things that distinguish the type of attack Ukraine has been subjected to from a strategic nuclear attack. The balance of terror means that none of the nuclear powers dare to use nuclear weapons for fear of being annihilated. At the same time, Maaø emphasizes that the development of hypersonic cruise missiles is a far more worrying development, seen from the defender’s eyes. These are missiles that fly in the atmosphere at very high speeds and against which there are currently no known means of defence. But they will not shake the balance of terror either, emphasizes Maaø. There are no superweapons Kinzjal is called one of the “superweapons” of the Russians, but in reality there are very few superweapons with the ability to actually fundamentally change things on the battlefield. Maaø explains that there are no such superweapons. – Even though you are always very concerned about weapon systems that are supposed to change everything, it is very rare in the history of war where you see weapon systems that change everything, or that give such a great advantage that you automatically win. In war and warfare, there are tough structures, he says. He points out that even the nuclear weapons have had quite a small impact on how to make war. Despite the fact that we have not seen a direct confrontation between nuclear powers, the great powers have fought their wars in a partially conventional way through proxy states, as in Korea, in Vietnam and now Ukraine. The nuclear powers have fought their wars through proxy states. These wars have been very similar to those before nuclear weapons were invented. Photo: Reuters – Most people thought that when nuclear weapons were invented, everything had changed. But that is only true to a certain extent. Because the wars that have taken place after nuclear weapons were invented are not as different as those that happened before nuclear weapons were invented, he says. The balance of terror The ability to strike back, i.e. the ability to attack back with nuclear weapons if you are attacked with nuclear weapons, is what maintains the balance of terror and prevents states from using nuclear weapons to achieve their goals. – The terror balance has not changed, although the ability to defend against a first strike has been somewhat strengthened, says Maaø. The question is how strong a missile defense system must be in order to become a central part of deterrence. This missile defense is part of the deterrence now, but the deterrence is dependent on both the defense capability and the ability to strike back after an attack. Maaø explains that the ability to fight back after an attack is still the most important thing for achieving deterrence. Maaø’s colleague at the Air Force Academy, Lars Peder Haga, is researching Russian air power and military power. Lars Peder Haga believes Patriot can protect troops from strategic nuclear weapons, but not the US mainland. Photo: Norwegian Defense He agrees that it is not possible to provide full protection against a full-scale strategic nuclear attack with this technology. – The short answer to the overall question is no. American air defenses are not able to provide full protection against a strategic Russian nuclear attack on the American mainland, says Haga. Patriot can probably provide partial protection for a deployed force, for example in Europe, against an attack with tactical nuclear weapons, i.e. less powerful nuclear weapons intended for use on the battlefield. – A strategic attack against the American continent from Russia or, for that matter, China will be carried out with intercontinental ballistic missiles. These are much larger rockets than Kinzjal, they fly much further and completely out of the atmosphere, and they have more warheads that will split from the rocket when it re-enters the atmosphere, he says. A Russian propaganda video demonstrates how their new nuclear weapons work. In addition, they have decoys to confuse radars at sea or on the ground. The systems that are effective against Kinzjal will therefore be completely useless against such an attack. – Such an attack will probably also consist of many more missiles at once. Therefore, it is not possible to say that the success against a few tactical ballistic missiles in a limited geographical area shows that the Americans are able to defend themselves against a Russian or Chinese strategic first-strike attack against many targets on American territory at the same time, he says. – This is most likely not possible today or in the foreseeable future. Russia suspects that the US can protect itself against a nuclear attack He explains that Russia does not believe the US when they say that they cannot protect themselves against a nuclear attack. They suspect that the US may have the ability to do this with its air defense system, and are developing nuclear weapons technology to ensure that they will succeed in an attack if necessary. – Russia has developed various countermeasures, such as new and more advanced ballistic missiles, hypersonic gliders and the Poseidon long-range nuclear torpedo, he says. In this sense, the further development of American missile defense has all created a dynamic with continued development of means of delivery for strategic nuclear weapons. – The success of Patriot in Ukraine probably affects this little, although it is a reminder to both China and Russia that the USA still has an advantage in the ability to develop, build and put into use very advanced weapons systems, says Haga. Both the Russians and the Chinese are well aware of this general technological advantage from before, and they are trying to overcome it. More worried about anti-satellite weapons The weapon systems that worry the researcher are rather anti-satellite technology that will knock out the warning systems in the West that are used in the event of a nuclear attack. – It is a worrying development, this ability to shoot down satellites. Many of the systems that warn in the event of a nuclear attack are based in space, and there Russia and China have invested heavily in anti-satellite technology. – I think what needs to be emphasized is that the warning capability in the West is relatively good. If there is a major attack, the warning systems will quickly pick it up. But if the Russians switch out these systems, it could in principle reduce the ability to warn.
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Can this technology also protect against nuclear attack? – news Norway – Overview of news from different parts of the country
