On Saturday, civil war-like conditions broke out in Russia. The Wagner group withdrew from Ukraine and into Russia. With tanks they moved towards the capital Moscow. The aim must have been to depose the military leadership. A Wagner-controlled tank in the streets of Rostov-na-Donu in Russia on Saturday. Photo: AP There is great uncertainty surrounding the motive for leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s sudden U-turn. He has for some time expressed dissatisfaction with the military leadership in Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin greeted the people on their way out of Russia on Saturday evening, after Belarus reached an agreement. Photo: ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO / Reuters A theory has been launched that it may have been a so-called “false flag operation”. Prigozhin, for his part, says the operation is a response to a bomb attack that killed a large number of his Wagner soldiers on Friday. He claims the attack was ordered by the leadership in Moscow, and vowed to counterattack. At the same time, the Americans must have been aware of the plans in the time before the bombing. The Americans must have known American intelligence must have had information that Prigozhin was planning specific actions against the military leadership in Moscow. The Washington Post writes that intelligence must have been aware of the plans since mid-June. CNN writes that they had known about the plans for “quite a long time”. The New York Times writes that the intelligence service held a meeting on the matter on Wednesday. Prigozhin and the Wagner soldiers who took part in the advance towards Moscow on Saturday escape prosecution. Wagner soldiers who did not participate are offered contracts with the Russian Armed Forces. Photo: Reuters It is therefore not entirely clear how long the Americans must have known about the Wagner group’s plans. Intelligence is said not to have known the details of the plans until shortly before Prigozhin set off for Russia. They are said to have thought they knew enough to notify the White House. The Americans’ first concern was whether Prigozhin’s plans would affect Moscow’s control of Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal. For several months, the intelligence service has been on the trail of the tense relationship between the Wagner chief and Russia’s military top management, with Defense Minister Sergej Shoigu at the head. The Wagner boss is particularly unhappy with the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu. Here with President Vladimir Putin. Photo: AP Concern about the nuclear arsenal The situation in Russia nevertheless calmed down on Saturday evening. Then Belarus’ president Aleksandr Lukashenko got an agreement between the parties in place. Reuters writes that Saturday’s events revived an old fear among Americans: What happens to Russia’s nuclear arsenal in the event of a sudden upheaval in the country? Saturday’s events awakened memories in the American security services of the failed coup attempt in the then Soviet Union in 1991, writes Reuters. Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko / AP – The intelligence service will be super focused on the Russian nuclear arsenal, says Marc Polymeropoulos. He is a former CIA officer. The United States nevertheless says that it does not see any changes in the security related to Russian nuclear weapons. – We have not seen any changes in the disposition of Russian nuclear forces. Russia has a special responsibility to control its nuclear forces, a spokesperson for the US Security Council told Reuters.
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