After a slightly chilly spring, summer finally arrived. And the summer seems to be of the hot kind in southern Norway. – It looks pretty good. I look primarily at temperature. It is incredibly difficult to say anything about precipitation, says Erik Kolstad, climate researcher at the research institute NORCE and the Bjerknes Center. Even he missed a bit on the costume in what was first a summer game in Bergen. – It only started raining after I left early today, laughs Kolstad Midnattsol at Bøsanden in Steigen. Photo: Heidi Iren Rosenby Warm in the south, cooler in the north Right now it looks like the nice weather will last for a while. July also looks pretty good in terms of temperature. – In southern Norway, of course. In Northern Norway, things look a bit bad. Using computer models of the state of the ocean and the atmosphere, NORCE and the Bjerknes Center calculate likely weather scenarios. – We cannot say anything about what it will be like on Wednesday in two weeks. But we can perhaps say something about how that week will be – seen as a whole. The way they do it is that they make several hundred forecasts. And then they look for trends among the many forecasts. 20 degrees in Kvam last weekend. Photo: Vigdis Stigum Enjoy the summer heat In Førde, three friends enjoy life in the sun along the banks of the Jølstra which runs through the town. – We have just finished our exams, and don’t have that many school hours a day. Then it’s nice to spend some free time here, say the girls. After a cold and wet summer last year, the friends are happy to hear that the researchers are now going to great lengths to promise a warm summer this year. – It’s great, it’s what we need now, says Alida Marie Ulvik. Alida Marie Ulvik, Linnea Helgheim Espeland and Linnea Botnen sunbathe along Jølstra. Photo: Per Kristian Grimeland / news July will probably be warmer than normal Due to the high uncertainty in the forecasts, the researchers cannot say whether the whole of July will be dry, wet, hot or cold. – But on average, there is a high probability that the summer will be warmer than normal. This applies to both Western and Eastern Norway. These are good signs for those who like a hot summer, but at the same time the heat also presents a problem. Hovdevatnet in Ørsta. Photo: Oddbjørg Lid Increased risk of forest fires – Now there is a drought and forest fire problem that is worst in the East, and which may develop. But on the whole, the summer seems to be the way people want it to be. It is not certain that it will be dry throughout July, even if the month is dry during one. – A warmer summer also means more torrential rain? – Yes, it is something that has started to take hold in Norway and to some extent also in Western Norway. For example in Jølster 2019 and episodes like that. Heat can also lead to an increased risk of torrential rain. This is something new. When the air is very warm, it can also retain more humidity. When it first rains, you quickly get torrential rain. – The intensity of the rain has increased. Mostly in the East, but also in the West. As is usually the case, it’s dry when it’s hot, but then you might get an afternoon rain or something like that.
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