– You may have waited a bit for it, for it to normalize. He has delivered extreme numbers and the question has been raised as to whether it can last. It is naive to think that it will be like this all the time, always. That’s what news’s football expert Carl-Erik Torp says, before Saturday’s Champions League final between Manchester City and Inter in Istanbul. Erling Braut Haaland has scored an incredible 52 goals in 52 games for City this season. The Norwegian has set record after record and much of the reason is that he scores more goals than expected, based on the chances he has been given. In the first 40 games, he scored 47 goals, but had “only” 33.28 expected goals. Expected goals (xG) is a measure of how many goals a player is expected to score, based on the chances the player has been given. In the last twelve games, however, there have been only five goals, despite an xG of 9.6 goals. Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola was ready in his speech when news brought up the negative trend towards Haaland at a press conference in Istanbul on Friday evening. – I am not here to discuss the conversion rate of Haaland. If you doubt that Haaland can score goals, then you are the only person. I have no doubt. Tomorrow he will be ready to help us win the Champions League, says Guardiola. THE KEY TO SUCCESS: Asked what is the key to Guardiola’s success, he answered having good players. Lionel Messi previously, and now Haaland, the Spaniard told. Photo: Jon Super / AP – Little things that decide – We saw a bit of that with Haaland at the start of the year, where he struggled a bit. But then he scored 15 goals in six or seven games. So it can go up and down a bit even for him, says news’s football writer, Thore Haugstad. In the mentioned period from the end of January to the beginning of March, Haaland scored two goals in eight games. Then it was primarily the chances that failed for the Norwegian, while the last few games have been characterized by a lack of results. – It’s about flow, confidence, margins and things like that. It’s the little things that make the difference. There are very human factors behind it. No matter how good you are at a sport, you have periods when things flow and periods when things don’t quite go your way, says Haugstad. DESPAIR: Haaland missed and missed against Real Madrid in the semi-final, but Manchester City still won 4-0 and progressed to the final. Photo: JASON CAIRNDUFF / Reuters From 19 to five For five goals in twelve games is actually the fewest number of goals Haaland has had in a period of more than twelve games since 2019, when he was at the start of his career in Salzburg. The football website Transfermarkt.com has total statistics for 300 matches Haaland has played for age-specific national teams, Bryne, Molde, Salzburg, Borussia Dortmund, Norway and Manchester City. The graph of Haaland’s goals in rolling periods of twelve games shows large fluctuations throughout his career, with peaks of 19 and 18 goals respectively during his time at Manchester City. – The positive thing for Haaland is that City have progressed in all tournaments in this period, so there have been no consequences. In fact, we have hardly seen any headlines about it, because everyone has been so focused on how good City has been as a team, says Haugstad. – That says something about the situation Haaland is in. No matter how much he scores, as long as City don’t win, people will say he’s not doing his job, because he has to make the team better. But now that City is winning, everything is fine, he says. – Unusually, Haaland has since coming to Salzburg scored 201 goals in 199 games for club and national team. Therefore, the goal average of 0.42 goals in the last twelve games and “only” 0.14 goals in the last seven games is something different from what you have become used to seeing from the Norwegian. – It is quite unusual. Especially in a period where City have won and scored goals otherwise. You have a player who, in the last four years, has scored around one goal per game on average. Then it is unusual that he has so few goals in such a period, says Haugstad. Haaland himself responded in this way to questions from TV 2 that there had been one goal in seven games. – You can also think of it as me having scored 52 goals in 52 games. Was it one goal in seven games you said? You can think of it that way too. I really don’t care about it at all, said Haaland. TWO IN THE BOX: Erling Braut Haaland and Manchester City have already won the Premier League and the FA Cup this season. Here is Haaland after the FA Cup final against Manchester United last weekend. Photo: GLYN KIRK / AFP What is extra remarkable are all the chances Haaland has missed. Statistics website FBref has xG numbers for all of Haaland’s matches in the Champions League and German Bundesliga. In rolling periods of twelve games, he has only marginally underperformed xG with -0.1 and -0.2 four times in Salzburg and Dortmund. This season he has overperformed xG right up until the last games, where he now has -4.6 over the last twelve games. Haugstad thinks that Haaland sees it simply. – I think he is done thinking about goal records this season, if he has been motivated by that at all. I think it’s very black/white for Haaland. As long as City win that title, then everything is rosy. If he is not close to the ball, it does not matter much. But if he doesn’t score and City lose 0-2, then people might start digging up old arguments about him not being in the game and that City might have won without him. All such factors are magnified in losses, and especially with City in the Champions League. – There is no one who manages to deliver completely stable numbers at that level in that competition. I’m absolutely sure that both Pep Guardiola and Haaland themselves are quite relaxed about it, especially considering that he gets his chances, adds Torp.
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