– No, it is not relevant for the government with diesel and petrol prices of NOK 50 per litre. This is the response of Transport Minister Jon-Ivar Nygård (Ap) to questions from parliamentary representative Helge-André Njåstad (Frp). But the minister adds: – At the same time, I think it is absolutely necessary that we get more pictures of what the future might look like. Namely, it is very uncertain what our society will look like if emissions are to be cut to such a large extent that we reach the climate targets for Norway. Climate measures cut the benefit to society Before Easter, the Norwegian Public Roads Administration presented two reports on cuts in greenhouse gas emissions from car traffic and road construction. The conclusions are both exciting and mind-boggling. One report concluded that the goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions from car traffic and road construction by 55 percent by 2030 is out of reach. In the second report, the Norwegian Public Roads Administration calculated that the societal benefit would decrease for eleven major road developments if measures were to be introduced at the same time that provide such large emission reductions. For the largest project, the Hordfast motorway south of Bergen, the positive social benefit disappears and instead goes into the red. The benefit will therefore be less than the billion kroner the development will cost the state. When necessary climate measures are included in the calculation, the societal benefit of Hordfast looks darker than in previous analyses. Photo: Illustration: Baezeni / National Road Administration Expensive petrol and high tolls In both reports, the Road Administration assumed, among other things, that sufficiently extensive emission reductions may require a tax increase that raises the price of petrol to NOK 50. The analysis also assumes a sharp increase in tolls in order to reach the goal of zero growth in car traffic in the big cities. Environmentalists and parties such as SV, MDG and Raudt welcomed the conclusion and believed that the supporters of Hordfast had lost their central argument about social benefit. Framstegspartiet and Høgre, on the other hand, rejected the premises for the analysis. – In this benefit analysis, they have put “dirt in” and thus get “dirt out”, said Njåstad in the Framstegspartiet. – Useful knowledge, but no It was the Ministry of Transport and Communications itself that last winter asked the Swedish Road Administration to reassess how economically profitable it is to build Hordfast and ten other major projects. In the benefit analysis, consideration should then be given to measures which mean that emissions from Norwegian roads in 2030 will be 55 per cent lower than in 1990. But when the calculation has now been done, the Minister of Transport and thus the government is in agreement with the Progress Party in rejecting sky-high petrol prices as a necessary premise . According to Nygård, the purpose of the analysis was to get an impression of the different types of tools that may be necessary to reach the emissions target, and how the measures affect the socio-economic profitability of the large projects. – I think this can contribute to a more realistic National Transport Plan. In working with the new NTP, we are forced to take into account major changes in Norwegian society. But that does not mean that we think it is appropriate to have a fuel price of NOK 50 per litre, he writes. His state secretary Tom Kalsås (Ap) elaborates: – We are not afraid to acquire new knowledge. This type of calculation is useful to keep with you, but for example a price per liter of NOK 50 will not be relevant for this government to introduce. – What will they then use this analysis for? – This will be one element in the assessments I have to make. There is no doubt that climate and the environment will be given importance in the future. Many measures must be taken and work together in order for us to reach the goal, which is demanding but not impossible. – How are they? – The total for Norway is that we have a big job ahead of us to reach the target for 2030, says Kalsås. The Labor Party’s state secretary Tom Kalsås in the Ministry of Transport. Photo: Storting Six per cent cut, not 55 Concretely, the Swedish Road Administration, the Norwegian Railway Directorate and the other state transport agencies have recently determined that with the measures in place today, there is only a six per cent cut in the transport sector, i.e. far short of the target of 55 percent. – What action will they take when they reject such high fuel prices? – For example, the electric car policy, and getting heavy traffic, ferries and fast boats to zero emissions, says Kalsås. The ministry left the question of increasing tolls to local authorities. Also the question of whether Hordfast and other roads should be built, leave the government to the county councils. – We will listen to the county councils about which project they want to give top priority, says the state secretary. “Negative benefit” All the eleven major projects come out in the red in terms of social benefit in relation to what it costs the public sector. The socio-economic profitability or usefulness of all the large projects is thus less than what the state has to fork out. It is not so easy to say which developments the Swedish Road Administration actually thinks should be prioritized, because they have prepared different lists with quite different orders. Hordfast is, for example, 1st in social benefit in relation to the expenditure the state receives, even if the benefit is therefore negative. But in the so-called portfolio prioritization, the Swedish Road Administration has now placed Hordfast in 12th place. – Hordfast not ready to be built Kalsås says the reason is that the zoning plan for the project is not finished. – Then it goes without saying that the project will not come to the top. In any case, Hordfast is simply not ready for construction. He emphasizes that net social benefit is only one of many elements that must be assessed.
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– NOK 50 per liter is out of the question – news Vestland
