What is the most important thing on the agenda when NATO’s foreign ministers meet in Oslo tomorrow? It is undoubtedly Ukraine. The talks will be about the situation on the ground right now. Where there are several elements that are decisive: the spring offensive which may have started, for example. As well as the US decision to begin training Ukrainian pilots to fly F16 fighter jets. Most important, however, will be the discussions about what kind of relationship Ukraine will have with NATO in the future. The Ukrainian authorities submitted an application for NATO membership this autumn. It requires some form of response. IN CONVERSATION: Norway’s Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt welcomes his NATO colleagues in Oslo this week. Here she is talking to US Foreign Minister Antony Blinken at a meeting in Brussels earlier this spring. Photo: AFP The meeting is called “an informal” meeting of foreign ministers. That doesn’t sound very important? This type of “informal” meeting is something quite new in the NATO context. In the EU, the format has been used for a long time. That it is not “formal” means that you should not sign agreements and documents. The conversations can still be decisive, because the meeting provides room for more open discussions. “Ukraine’s rightful place is in NATO,” Jens Stoltenberg said when he visited Kyiv recently. Is it a clear signal that NATO membership may soon be in the cards for Ukraine? In any case, it won’t be “soon”. And whether it can be done in practice, not all NATO countries agree. Some plan that points forward towards a situation where membership becomes possible, the countries must nevertheless come up with by the summit in Vilnius in July. It is about which political and economic reforms are a prerequisite for membership. It is also about the Ukrainian defense being compatible with the NATO countries. It is also expected that NATO will come up with an outline of how a free and independent Ukraine can be secured against future attacks, even without full NATO membership. This is where the talks in Oslo can become important. COMBAT PLANES: The US begins the training of Ukrainian pilots. After many months of Ukrainian pleas for fighter jets, F16 deliveries may now become a reality. Photo: AFP What kind of security can the NATO countries offer, then? So far, somewhat round formulations are used to define Ukraine’s status during a transitional period. Ukraine has asked for “security guarantees”, while many from the Nato team prefer “security assurances”. It is unlikely to involve promises to intervene with Western forces in a future conflict. But one can imagine promises of long-term support, promises of future arms deliveries and agreements on arms production. In addition, it is envisaged to create new formal cooperation bodies, such as a NATO-Ukraine Council. Several large NATO countries, including France, have recently expressed their willingness to join such a guarantee/insurance system, but it remains to be seen exactly what this will entail in practice. The idea is that such guarantees will be an important signal to Russia: There is no point in waiting for support for Ukraine to ebb. Donald Trump has said that he will end the war within a day if he becomes president again. Can the US guarantee that the guarantees given will last even with Trump as president? That is a very good question. Will the NATO foreign ministers find out about the question of Swedish NATO membership in Oslo? Hardly. It is not expected that the question of Swedish membership will become part of the formal talks (if you can talk about such a thing at an “informal” meeting). But it will obviously be a theme in the hallways and breaks. Admittedly, without one of the main actors: on Monday it became clear that the Turkish foreign minister will not be coming to Oslo. Turkey is still the real obstacle in the way of Swedish membership. If it is true that Recep Tayyip Erdogan used Sweden’s NATO application in some kind of domestic political game, one can imagine that he will ratify the application now that he has won the presidential election. It is also possible to argue that Erdogan is far too unpredictable to be taken for granted. NOT TO OSLO: Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu is conspicuous by his absence when his NATO colleagues meet on Wednesday. Photo: AP What about the question of who will take over from Jens Stoltenberg in NATO? Will we find out at the meeting in Oslo? It would be surprising, but not entirely impossible. Speculation about a possible successor continues after UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said earlier this month it would be a fantastic job to get. The other high-profile politicians who have been mentioned have mostly said that they do not consider themselves candidates for such a job. Of course, that doesn’t mean it’s true. GOOD MOOD: Mette Frederiksen and Volodymyr Zelenskyj found the tone when they met earlier this month. Could she become the next Secretary General of NATO? Photo: Reuters Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is often mentioned as a strong candidate. The speculation that she is the one who gets the job took an extra turn last week, when it became clear that Frederiksen is going to Washington to meet Joe Biden next Monday.
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NATO’s foreign ministers will meet in Oslo tomorrow – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
