In today’s presidential election in Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (69) is being challenged by Kemal Kiliçdaroglu (74). Whichever of the two wins could have consequences for which direction Turkey is going, also on the world stage. Erdogan currently manages Turkish foreign policy from his presidential palace in Ankara. He will see a win as support to continue his current course. If there is a change, Kiliçdaroglu has promised to turn foreign policy away from personal power and control, into a more predictable fold in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He says he wants dialogue, not confrontation. But regardless of who wins, the Turkish election will have consequences far beyond the country’s borders. CHALLENGER: Kemal Kiliçdaroglu (74) will extend a hand to the West and NATO if he wins. Photo: MURAD SEZER / Reuters What does the election mean for NATO? Turkey has long been perceived as a demanding NATO ally. Erdogan is notorious for taking any opportunity to horse trade. It clearly came to the surface when Sweden applied for membership in the defense alliance last year, which Erdogan has so far refused. For him, this was probably as important in domestic politics as in foreign policy. By denying Sweden membership, he could appear as a strong leader in his home country. One who stood up to the West, something his followers like. NATO, for its part, has been patient and waited. Thus, they have also avoided that Erdogan can use the case in the run-up to the election. NEW SHIP: TCG Anadolu is the first aircraft carrier Turkey has produced. It was on display in Istanbul earlier this month. Turkey has expanded its national defense industry. Photo: Reuters Will Turkey say yes to Sweden after the election? Most Turks, around 60 percent, want to stay in NATO, according to surveys. So it is not an issue whether Turkey should remain in NATO or not. Thus, the pressure to let Sweden in may increase ahead of the NATO summit in Vilnius in Lithuania in July. Facts about the elections in Turkey Around 64 million are eligible to vote in the parliamentary and presidential elections in Turkey on 14 May. 5 million votes for the first time. It is between two candidates for president and three party alliances for parliament Six Turkish opposition parties have gathered around a common presidential candidate – the long-time leader of the Republican Party (CHP), Kemal Kilicdaroglu. If none of them gets more than 50 percent of the votes, a second round of elections will be held on 28 May. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been in power for 20 years. Sweden’s new terrorism legislation comes into force on 1 June, which may help to resolve the issue. The Danish right-wing extremist Rasmus Paludan set people on fire when he set fire to the Koran outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm in January. And even if the Swedish court still believes that Koran burning should be allowed, Paludan – suspected of several offenses – will be arrested if he crosses the border to Sweden, according to Aftonbladet. But it is not certain that Erdogan will give up his negotiating card so easily, because it has become so valuable, says Turkey expert Einar Wigen at the University of Oslo. He thinks Erdogan will demand something in return for letting Sweden into NATO. KEMPER: President Erdogan at an election campaign event in Istanbul in April. Photo: CAGLA GURDOGAN / Reuters If his opponent Kemal Kiliçdaroglu takes over as president, it could be a point in itself for him to break with such a horse-trading line, Wigen believes. A victory for Kiliçdaroglu will give some of the power back to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Kiliçdaroglu has promised to approve Sweden’s application, and wants to be a more predictable and constructive partner in NATO. What does the election mean for the region? Erdogan has brought Turkey into many conflicts with neighboring countries. He is perceived as a president who manages foreign policy himself, and to a large extent based on personal relationships and profit. But the country has made an effort to normalize relations with countries such as Egypt, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Syria. Regardless of who wins, there is reason to believe it will continue. Turkey entered Idlib province in Syria with forces six years ago. Erdogan has long tried to create a buffer zone along the entire Turkish border by depriving Kurds of the areas there. The Turkish offensive became possible when former US President Donald Trump chose to withdraw US forces from North-East Syria. But the presence has become a quagmire for Turkey, costing both money and soldiers. If Turkey is to have a better relationship with the Syrian Assad regime, they must withdraw. Both of the Turkish presidential candidates have said that they will send home the close to 4 million Syrian refugees staying in Turkey. Bashar al-Assad has said he is not willing to enter into any agreement with Turkey until they withdraw from the areas they have occupied. Kiliçdaroglu has said he will talk to the Assad regime to find ways to cooperate. But you cannot take a complete foreign policy turnaround for granted, even if there were to be a shift. THE HEART: This has become the hallmark of Kilicdaroglu. Photo: MURAD SEZER / Reuters What about Russia? Just three weeks before the election, President Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin inaugurated Turkey’s first nuclear power plant. It ties the two countries closer together. The power plant is built and operated by the Russians, reinforcing cooperation that has accelerated since Vladimir Putin went to war in Ukraine. What the two leaders agree on in the back room when they meet, no one knows. But if the opposition wins, the personal relationship between the presidents will end. It will also change the relationship between the countries. OTHER TIMES: Russian President Vladimir Putin, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and French President Emmanuel Macron. Photo: Lefteris Pitarakis / AP Russia does not want Kiliçdaroglu to win the election, because it will change the entire dynamic between Turkey and Russia, where the relationship between Erdogan and Putin has been important, believes researcher Pinar Tank in PRIO. With a new president, Turkey will probably still not impose sanctions on Russia, but will do more to prevent Russia from circumventing the Western sanctions. But the country still has strong economic ties to Russia. This means that the relationship continues, but in more transparent forms. Could relations with the West be affected? Parts of Turkish society have strong anti-Western attitudes, helped by Erdogan’s thunderous speeches in the pro-government media. Even if Erdogan were to tone down his tough rhetoric, the attacks on democratic institutions and freedom of expression will prevent a more conciliatory relationship between Turkey and the West. But the uncompromising tone Erdogan uses will change with Kiliçdaroglu as president. There is still a lot that can go wrong at a time when the economy is in crisis, points out Einar Wigen. If the World Bank has to step in and save the Turkish economy, it could reinforce anti-Western attitudes, he believes. He refers to leading the country as an “urious post”, because of all the problems Turkey is facing. There are also many other things that have given rise to mistrust of the West. For example, Turks were promised visa-free access to the EU when they agreed to take back Syrians during the 2015 refugee crisis, which was never fulfilled. Relations with the US have been at freezing point after Turkey bought the Russian S-400 air defense system, despite warnings from Washington. Western allies are most likely to welcome a new president, especially if expectations of the release of political prisoners are met. But Kilicdaroglu will not only orient himself towards the West. During the election campaign, he has said that he will also create a new Silk Road to China if he wins. Much of Turkish foreign policy is currently driven by its own economic interests. It looks like it could continue regardless of who wins.
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What does it mean for the world if Erdogan wins the election in Turkey? – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
