For many months, Russia and Ukraine have fought a bloody battle for control of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. But now Russia lacks weapons. Russia is probably trying to conserve ammunition ahead of the long-announced Ukrainian spring offensive. Trenches near Bakhmut. Photo: GENYA SAVILOV / AFP This is what Tor Bukkvoll, chief researcher at the Defense Research Institute, and Tom Røseth at the Defense College say. – That Russia prioritizes setting up a defense line makes sense. Ammunition and weapons are a limited resource, and then a defense is prioritized to stop a Ukrainian breakthrough, says Røseth to news. The American Institute of War (ISW) also believes that the lack of weapons at the front in Bakhmut indicates that Russia is deprioritizing the city they have been fighting over for months. – They will probably go on the defensive. It is an operationally sound decision from Russia, writes the think tank. Ukrainian President Zelenskyi visited Bakhmut on March 22 this year. Photo: The Ukrainian presidential administration Threatens withdrawal Along the approximately 1,000 kilometer long front in Ukraine, everyone is waiting for Ukraine’s announced spring offensive. This is what the front line in Ukraine looks like on Friday 05 May this year. Photo: INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR AND AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT / news (05.05.2023) This is what the front line in Ukraine looks like on Friday 5 May this year. Photo: INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR AND AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT / news (05.05.2023) It is the mercenaries in the Wagner group who are fighting in Bakhmut. Yesterday, a furious Wagner chief strongly criticized the Russian defense leadership. The reason is that Wagner lacks ammunition. Wagner boss Prigozhin literally quivers with anger as he points to dead Russian mercenaries. Prigozhin says he will withdraw the soldiers from Bakhmut on May 10, if the demands for more ammunition are not heard. Russia celebrates the so-called Victory Day on May 9. Putin celebrates Russia on February 22 this year, two days before the first anniversary of the war. Photo: MAKSIM BLINOV / AFP Will defend itself The American think tank the Institute of War believes that Russia is turning its focus away from Bakhmut in order to defend itself against a Ukrainian offensive. That puts the Wagner boss in a tight spot, they write in their analysis. – His clear and physical anger suggests that the Russian Ministry of Defense has downplayed Bakhmut and directed its focus elsewhere, ISW writes. According to the Institute of War, the Russian offensive has stopped in several places along the front line. It is probably because Russia is preparing for Ukrainian attacks. A Ukrainian soldier operates a drone at the front line near Bakhmut on April 9. Photo: LIBKOS / AP Believes Wagner will get weapons Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has also previously come out harshly against Russian defense leadership. Then it has yielded results. Tor Bukkvoll therefore believes that it can work again. – The reason is that there is too little ammunition on both sides: Both for Russia and Ukraine, according to Bukkvoll. – This may indicate that the defense is holding back on supplies to Wagner, says Bukkvoll. The fact that Prigozhin can criticize Russia’s military so forcefully indicates a continued close relationship between him and Russian President Vladimir Putin, says Bukkvoll. – Wagner exists because Putin wants them there. Putin has control over Wagner as long as he is seen as strong. But if the war were to go even worse, and Putin is no longer seen as omnipotent, then it could open up opportunities for others. Like Prigozhin, says Bukkvoll. Russian President Vladimir Putin at a meeting in Moscow on May 2. Photo: Reuters – Putin is the joker Tom Røseth calls Russian President Vladimir Putin the joker in the disagreement among Russia’s military leaders. – There are divisions, but also such strong dissatisfaction that it will be exciting to see how they manage to handle a Ukrainian counter-offensive. But the joker here is Putin, if he interferes in this conflict. Tom Røseth at FHS Photo: Trygve Heide / news
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– Lack of weapons on both sides – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
