In the past year, the Russians have gathered a large number of military vehicles in northern Crimea, the peninsula Russia occupied in 2014. Satellite images news has gained access to show how a field in Medvedevka became a military base – just a few kilometers from the mainland of Ukraine. Just weeks before a possible Ukrainian counter-offensive, the land is empty. Short way to the mainland Shortly before the full-scale invasion was a fact, the space technology company Maxar, among others, began taking satellite images of Medvedevka. The village is strategically well located. Only 12 kilometers further north, the bridge over the Sivasj lagoon provides an entrance to the mainland. After the summer of last year, increased activity was registered in Crimea, Russia’s corridor into mainland Ukraine. A series of images in low resolution, taken from the sentinel hub, shows that something is happening on the field just north of the village: High activity In a high-resolution image taken by Maxar on February 11, 2023, several vehicles can be seen parked on the field: Photo: Maxar Technologies / Reuters The next image makes it clear that there are artillery guns, tanks and other armored vehicles that were stationed there. Driving tracks are also visible: Photo: Maxar Technologies / Reuters About a month later, on March 16, 2023, a new photo is taken. This picture shows that there has been activity in Medvedevka. We can still see road tracks on the plain, but in this photo there are far fewer military vehicles present: Photo: Brady Africk / Skywatch The last photo is dated April 25, 2023. No military vehicles can be seen on the field in Medvedevka. Only road tracks are visible. Photo: Brady Africk / Skywatch But what the tracks don’t tell us is where the weapon systems have gone. Difficult to analyze Since the war in Ukraine escalated, Brady Africk of the American Enterprise Institute has carefully analyzed and mapped open sources. Among other things, he is behind an overview of Russian fortifications in Ukraine. Why the military base has been emptied and what it means is difficult to analyse, says Africk to news. – If the vehicles have been moved closer to the front, it may indicate that Russia is sending material in preparation for a Ukrainian counter-offensive or to replace losses. But that the Russian weapon systems have been moved to the front line is not a given. – If it has been sent further away from the front line, it may indicate concern over Ukrainian attacks on concentrations of equipment. Good defense position Tom Røseth is head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense Academy. Photo: Trygve Heide / news He also sees two possibilities for what may have happened to the tanks and artillery: They may have been put in a defensive position in and around the Crimean peninsula. Or they may have been transported by train to Melitopol, which is under Russian control, to strengthen positions further north. Most likely, they have gone out into positions in the area around Crimea, he reasons. It is fairly well documented that Russian forces have fortified their positions – also in Crimea. – If you fortify and protect your artillery and tanks, you have a fairly good defensive position that is difficult to break through.
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