The lack of ammunition in Ukraine was the topic when the foreign ministers of the EU met earlier this week. – Russian artillery fires 50,000 rounds every day. Ukraine must have the same capacity, said the EU’s foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell. And he added: – This is the most urgent problem. If we do not succeed in supplying Ukraine with ammunition, it may have consequences for the outcome of the war. The foreign affairs chief of the EU, Josep Borrell. Photo: Jean-Francois Badias / AP 6,000 grenades a day Ukraine receives large quantities of weapons from Western countries. But the capacity to produce ammunition is far less than the need. Therefore, the countries must remove their own stocks. Ukraine fires around 6,000 artillery shells a day, or 180,000 in a month. A review carried out by SVT shows how big the gap is between the need for grenades and the production in the West. Using up the annual production in one month, the US has sent over a million artillery shells to Ukraine. But the country only has the capacity to produce 170,000 grenades a year. In practice, this means that Ukraine uses up the entire annual production in the USA in less than a month. The USA has decided that production will increase sharply. But it will probably take up to two years before the production target is reached. Until further notice, the country therefore has to dispose of its own stockpiles of weapons. European countries also send large quantities of ammunition to Ukraine. EU countries have the capacity to produce 300,000 artillery shells a year. Production can perhaps increase by 50 per cent during 2023. Wait for the spring offensive – The intensity of the campaigns means a much greater consumption of ammunition than the West will be able to cover, at least this year. That’s why the Ukrainians probably have to think twice before they can start a major offensive this spring, says Tormod Heier, professor at the Norwegian Defense Academy. Tormod Heier, professor at the Norwegian Defense Academy. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB But Heier also sees a bright spot, seen from the Ukrainian side. – The Russians are also about to run out of ammunition. The intensity is much lower than before. Today they are down to between 5,000 and 20,000 grenades a day, some days up to 50,000. And he thinks the Ukrainians have a big advantage in the fight against Russia. – They have access to western intelligence that shows the location of ammunition stores, command posts and transport lines. Thus, they can concentrate the scarce artillery resources against these targets. The Ukrainians can wage war in a more modern and efficient way that requires less ammunition. EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell together with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyi when Zelenskyi was in Brussels on 9 February. Photo: Geert Vanden Wijngaert / AP Far from the need – If western countries are set on reducing stocks by 50 or 25 per cent, they can perhaps hold out for one or one and a half more years. After that, it starts to end, says Rein Pella, who is a teacher in defense systems at the Swedish Försvarshögskolan to SVT. Nevertheless, this is far from the need in Ukraine. If one assumes that around 6,000 grenades are used a day, that is over 2 million a year. – It is urgent – I am convinced that Ukraine already today has restrictions on how many grenades they can fire. If you put stronger restrictions on it, it will be more difficult to resist the attack from Russia, says Pella. The lack of artillery ammunition does not only have consequences for Ukraine. Many believe that the stocks in Western countries are so empty that some countries would have problems defending themselves if they were to be drawn into a war. – We must do what we can to get production started, both out of consideration for Ukraine and ourselves. And it is urgent, says Rein Pella. The EU countries are considering working together on the purchase of weapons for Ukraine in the same way as when they collaborated on vaccine purchases during the corona pandemic. The matter is scheduled to be resolved at a meeting with the defense ministers in the EU in a week’s time. Understand what has happened on the ground in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion.
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Ukraine can let up on ammunition – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
