The first opinion poll in the local election year 2023 a month ago showed that the two governing parties did significantly better when people answered what they should vote for in the municipal election than what they would vote for in the parliamentary election. Norstat’s figures for February are here. Not as expected Jau then. The Labor Party and the Center Party still have better numbers in the municipalities than in national politics. But once again the arrows are pointing the wrong way. – Too bad numbers, says party secretary in the Labor Party, Kjersti Stenseng. Ap and Sp’s combined decline from January is 3.2 percentage points when people are asked about the local elections. The changes are within the margin of error, but the two should have seen green arrows pointing upwards. National municipal poll February What would you vote for if there were municipal elections now? Compared with the municipal poll in January. De GrønneMDG−0.44.8%Kristelig FolkepartiKRF+1.94.7%RødtR−1.14.4%VenstreV+0.51.5%Industrial and business partyINP+0.34.9%OtherAndre−1.1995 interviews conducted in the period 25.1.23–31.1.23. Margins of error from 1.4–3.5 pp. Source: Norstat for news and Aftenposten INP (the Industrial and Business Party) is the largest of the parties not in the Storting. The party announced last night that it is merging with the Health Party. Behind the collection column “others” are several other small parties. According to Norstat, the People’s Party FNB (“No to more tolls”) has 1.0% support and the Pensioners’ Party 0.6%, the others are lower. Tough January On several occasions, the Labor Party has pointed to how demanding times make it challenging for the party in charge. Party secretary Kjersti Stenseng does this this time as well. – January has been tough for people. There is an increase in prices and an increase in interest rates, people notice this well in their wallets. It is natural that frustration and dissatisfaction are directed at those who sit in government and rule. TØFT: Party secretary in Ap, Kjersti Stenseng. Photo: Terje Bendiksby / NTB If Ap gets 21.2% in the municipal election, it will be the party’s worst local election ever by a good margin. While the level of the parliamentary poll this month (17.5%) is the second lowest the party has had with news. Only beaten by the worst ever in December. – Do you think they are dependent on putting an end to the expensive period before the local elections if the election results are to be satisfactory then? – We must at least be a little patient in a time with many crises on top of each other. Then I hope we will see results from the policy we are delivering now, both on interest rates and on price growth. And then we must have full focus on presenting the local candidates and our issues. I have faith in it, it’s a long time until September. – Is it the Labor Party or people who have to be patient? – I think it is a combination. I think trust in the Labor Party will increase when people see that everyday life is actually getting better, says Stenseng. – It will take some time for the policy to work, but I hope we will see improvement over the winter and spring, both for the people and the Labor Party. Government partner the Center Party withdraws from both polls. The changes are small and within the margin of error, but the party has settled on far lower numbers than in the two previous elections. A small consolation is that the support for the mayor’s party Sp is also markedly better when people are asked about the municipal election than about the parliamentary election, but a level of around 8 percent in the municipalities is far from the result of over 14 in the 2019 municipal election. well above the disappointing local election result of 20 per cent in 2019, and 28.5 is also better than in January. – This is nice, because we are at a very high level, says former Prime Minister Erna Solberg. DOUBLE? Senior leader Erna Solberg hopes for twice as many mayors as in previous local elections. Photo: Even Bjøringsøy Johnsen / news She thinks the Labor Party’s explanation about troubled times does not explain everything. – The government has faced difficult times, but they have chosen to create more unrest with their own policies, she believes, listing both tax, health and schools. – I think there are many areas where people feel that unrest is being created, which is unnecessary at a time when there are many challenges outside of Norway. Solberg says the goal in the election this autumn is to double the number of mayors from the current 35. And KrF was not dead KrF is a party that has been relatively quiet since the general election in 2021. In most polls, the party has been below 4 percent. The party has some strong municipalities in the south and west of Norway, but the overall support in the first national municipal poll in January looked rather bad. UP: KrF leader Bollestad can enjoy a small upturn. Photo: Roy Pettersen / news But in the February numbers, KrF gets a rare boost. 4.8 percent would vote KrF in the municipality where they live. – Christian democratic politics is not dead. It really is something that is needed in a society that is insecure and restless, says party leader Olaug Bollestad. – We stand firm on our values, so we have to develop policies that meet society today, Bollestad asserts and points out that the party particularly focuses on family policy and health policy. The parliamentary poll also shows progress, but shows that KrF still has a long way to go. Party barometer February What would you vote for if there were a general election? Compared to January.Party Support Change31.0%HøyreH+0.117.5%Labor PartyAP−1.914.5%Progress PartyFRP+2.68.8%Socialist Left PartySV+0.46.0%RedR+0.65.4%Center PartySP−0.54 .9%VenstreV−0.24.0%Miljøpartiet De GrønneMDG03.5%Kristelig FolkepartiKRF+0.94.3%AndreAndre−1.9986 interviews conducted in the period 25.1.23–31.1.23. Margins of error from 1.1–3.5 pp. Source: Norstat for news and Aftenposten When people are asked what they would vote for in a parliamentary election, it turns out that the Right, Frp and Liberal Party would have a majority with 88 out of 169 representatives. In the parliamentary poll, the FRP’s progress from the last time is clearly visible. – I think people are horrified by what they have seen in care for the elderly, is Frp leader Sylvi Listhaug’s explanation. – The others will continue as before and let the municipalities clean up, while we want the state to take over the funding so that your postcode does not determine what kind of offer you get. Listhaug also believes that people are calling for more political action in the face of rising food prices. – We could halve food VAT, as the FRP proposes. And we could also be allowed to increase the prices in the agricultural settlement by over one billion kroner. No gunfire for Raudt It is also worth noting that Raudt is not punished by the voters for his position not to provide arms aid to Ukraine. The point of view has been strongly supported by political opponents in January, among other things in news Debatten. Raudt goes back somewhat in the municipal poll, but has a better number in the parliamentary poll than the party had a month ago. Distribution of seats in February How many representatives would the party have in the Storting compared to today? Right H54+18 Workers’ Party AP35−13 Progressive Party FRP26+5 Socialist Left PartySV15+2 RedR11+3 Center Party SP10−18VenstreV80 Environmental Party De GreenMDG7+4 Christian FolkepartiKRF30OtherANDRE00−1 Source: Norstat for news and Aftenposten
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