2022 has been characterized by covid-19, war, inflation, increased interest rates and fears of an economic downturn. What about 2023? We asked the experts what makes them optimistic, uneasy and what they want to keep an extra close eye on in the coming year. The experts are investment director Alexandra Morris at Skagen Fondene, chief economist Frank Jullum at Danske Bank and chief economist Kyrre Knudsen at Sparebank 1 SR-Bank. What makes you optimistic? Frank Jullum at Danske Bank sees signs that we are beginning to approach the top, both in terms of inflation and interest rates. The probability that things will get much worse in 2023 is getting smaller, Jullum believes. – We see that interest rates are starting to bite into demand, and that it is also starting to affect some of the global commodity inflation, notes the chief economist. Frank Jullum sees signs that things are about to turn around. Photo: Danske Bank Alexandra Morris in Skagen The funds are, like most active investors, optimistic by nature. She believes in better times, and sees more positive features in the stock market going forward. – The time for quick profits and money printing is over. Now we are back to sober times where quality and earnings trump future expected growth, says Morris. Investment director Alexandra Morris was right that 2022 would be darker than 2021 on the stock market. – I am in no way psychic, so I could not foresee the extent of what has happened this year either. Photo: Skagenfondene Kyrre Knudsen in Sparebank 1 SR-Bank believes we can be optimistic heading into 2023: Norway has good control of the pandemic and has the highest employment ever measured. Unemployment is at a record low, while at the same time there are a good number of vacant positions. – The fact that we coped with the pandemic so well tells us that when we are faced with a crisis that requires action, we are powerful. We manage to solve difficult problems, says Knudsen. With high inflation and high interest rates, it requires that we dare to think new thoughts and dare to take new measures, says chief economist Kyrre Knudsen. Photo: Sparebank 1 SR-Bank What worries you about the future? Alexandra Morris in Skagen Fondene sees several frightening developments, although managers should preferably be optimistic. – It is urgent to find sustainable solutions to our most serious challenges on earth. I think the trend towards more authoritarian and populist forms of government in some countries is highly regrettable, says Morris. Alexander Lukashenko has introduced an increasingly authoritarian regime in Belarus. Here together with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo: SPUTNIK / Reuters Kyrre Knudsen in Sparebank 1 SR-Bank points to several concerns that he does not think will go away anytime soon: Russia’s war against Ukraine, energy policy in the world and demanding value chains and supply links. – The world order, not least in Europe, has been disrupted. We have not experienced this many times. I also think that the lack of trust in the world is disturbing, says Knudsen. Frank Jullum at Danske Bank is concerned about the effect of interest rate increases and inflation. This combination is hitting businesses and households hard all over the world. – Broadly speaking, also in Norway, consumption has been kept up by drawing on saved funds. But this source is starting to dry up. We will therefore have an economic downturn with higher unemployment and more bankruptcies during 2023. I am concerned that it may be deeper and more prolonged than we think. Policy rate in percent The policy rate is set eight times a year by Norges Bank. The policy interest rate governs the interest rates in the banks, and affects your housing costs. The aim of raising the interest rate is for the high prices to come down again. The forecast tells us how Norges Bank thinks interest rates will develop in the future. Read more about the electricity charges and when you get electricity support here. Higher interest rates mean increased expenses if you have a mortgage. What do you want to keep an extra close eye on in the coming year? Kyrre Knudsen in Sparebank 1 SR-Bank points to both inflation and geopolitics. The war in Ukraine, the conflict between Taiwan and China and the US’s role in world politics will also affect us in 2023, the chief economist believes. – Some of the inflation came before the war, but the high energy prices came as a result of Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Major disruptions can have a major impact on energy prices in the future. If prices remain high and the authorities are betting that this will pass and go well, we may have more liquidations of companies, says Knudsen. China claims sovereignty over the island in the East China Sea, while the US and Biden say they will defend Taiwan against an attack from China. Illustration: Alexander Slotten / news Frank Jullum at Danske Bank will keep an eye on the usual things, but will keep an extra close eye on the labor market. – The development in the labor market, both with unemployment and wages in all countries, will be extra important going forward, says Jullum. Alexandra Morris in Skagen Fondene has no doubt that it will be an exciting year. – One of the things I will naturally be keeping a close eye on is inflation. Most experts agree that we are approaching the peak of interest rate increases for this time, and that could have a positive impact on the markets. And as a tennis enthusiast, I look forward to following Casper Ruud’s progress over the next year. What a sports profile! Interest calculator The calculator uses the formula for annuity loans to calculate your monthly costs. Nominal interest is used here. This means that there will be an additional transaction fee which will vary from bank to bank. Today’s interest rate is taken from DNB’s mortgage interest rate for young people, and different banks will have different interest rates. The figures given here will therefore be approximate for you. Monthly expenses are interest and repayments combined. Read more about sources and reservations here. See how much you have to pay if the interest rate increases.
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