Scientists from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have recently announced the end of La Niña, the atmospheric circulation pattern responsible for the cold waves and abundant precipitation experienced during the previous autumn and winter. With its conclusion, a new cycle of El Niño is beginning to form in the Pacific Ocean, anticipated to develop between late summer and early autumn. Dubbed as “Superchild” by media outlets, this El Niño cycle could bring both severe flooding and droughts, raising concerns across various regions, particularly Southern Europe.
Understanding El Niño
El Niño refers to an anomaly in the atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marked by a significant temperature variation in tropical Pacific areas. Under normal circumstances, trade winds in the Pacific blow westward, moving warm water from South America towards Asia, while cold water rises from the depths to replace it. However, during El Niño events, these trade winds weaken, causing warm water to shift eastward, impacting weather patterns globally.
Historically, South American fishermen noticed warmer ocean waters in the 17th century, which they named El Niño de Navidad due to its peak around December. This phenomenon has profound implications on climate, particularly in North America where it often leads to droughts and notably hot summers. The Pacific jet stream tends to shift southward during an El Niño event, causing variations in precipitation across the U.S., with some areas experiencing increased flooding.
Global Impacts, Including Europe
While the primary effects of El Niño are observed in Asia, Australia, and South America, it also significantly influences the climate in Europe. As noted by climatologist Serena Giacomin, El Niño acts like a “gigantic thermodynamic machine,” redistributing heat and energy across the globe. Forecast models suggest a 75% chance that the upcoming El Niño will be exceptionally strong, raising concerns about increasing temperatures and extreme weather events in Europe, potentially making 2027 one of the hottest years on record.
Increased Extremes in Weather
The influx of energy into the atmosphere means that we can expect more extreme weather conditions. Giacomin points out that this increased energy can lead to intense meteorological phenomena, although specific localized weather events remain difficult to predict. Historically, El Niño has correlated with more stable conditions in Southern Europe, resulting in longer-lasting heat waves and abrupt changes in weather patterns, such as prolonged droughts followed by heavy rainfall.
Signs of a Warming Climate
Recent data already indicate a significant rise in temperatures. March 2026 has been reported as the warmest March for the continental United States in 132 years, while globally, temperatures reached 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels. In Europe, the situation is similarly alarming, with widespread drier than normal conditions and some areas experiencing record high temperatures.
Recent observations from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) depict a climate system under immense pressure, emphasizing the need for effective climate adaptation strategies. The figure of 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels, alongside record low Arctic sea ice and sea surface temperatures nearing historic highs, paints a concerning picture of our planet’s ongoing climate crisis.