The Optimism of Spanish Entrepreneurs Amidst Global Trade Turmoil
Spain has emerged as the most optimistic country in Europe and the Middle East regarding the ongoing Tariff War , according to a recent analysis by Oxford Economics included in the International Business Report (IBR) prepared by Grant Thornton . This report assesses the expectations and concerns of ‘Middle-Market’ companies both nationally and globally.
The IBR indicates that optimism levels in Europe and the Middle East have remained steady over the last quarter. In a striking contrast, the Asia-Pacific region has experienced a significant decline in optimism, dropping six percentage points. The impact of threats from former U.S. President Donald Trump , who has hinted at imposing tariffs of up to 50% on several Asian countries—including Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam—factors heavily into this decline.
In this context of global instability, Spanish entrepreneurs are increasingly focused on national markets , viewing them as ripe with potential opportunities. For the second consecutive quarter, leaders within Spain’s Middle-Market have expressed that their own country presents the most favorable market conditions, reflecting a trend also observed across Europe and Asia.
While global uncertainty weighs heavily on the international business landscape , a significant 71% of medium-sized company leaders remain optimistic about short-term economic conditions. This optimism, however, is in stark contrast to the global trajectory of declining confidence, which has fallen by five percentage points since the end of 2024. The results highlight the geographical disparities impacted by ongoing tariffs.
As Grant Thornton comments, the wave of protectionist policies enacted by various nations is expected to have a direct impact on global trade, potentially pushing economies to the brink of recession . The report outlines different scenarios for the effects of the tariff war, suggesting that in the worst case, the global economy could face a significant slowdown and not recover its growth levels until 2028. Conversely, the more optimistic scenario keeps global growth near 2% , limiting the fallout from uncertainties.
The projections of economic growth hinge critically on these latest tariffs. Notably, regions such as North America and Pacific Asia are anticipated to be disproportionately affected by the impact of the trade war, whereas regions like the Eurozone , North Africa , or the Persian Gulf are likely to face a much more limited impact.
The report further highlights that the ongoing tariff war is beginning to burden the U.S. economy, revealing a 0.1% contraction in Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) in the first three months of the year compared to the previous quarter and a 0.5% decrease compared to the same quarter in 2024. This presents a concerning outlook for a nation that has long been seen as an economic powerhouse.
Moreover, the International Business Report by Grant Thornton sheds light on the significant effects of the trade war on export expectations, particularly within the Asia-Pacific region. In the latest quarter, the percentage of entrepreneurs in that area planning to increase exports has dramatically dropped by nine percentage points to only 42%. In comparison, that same metric remains stable in North America at 59% and even shows a slight increase in the Eurozone, climbing to 45%.
In summary, while Spain retains a positive outlook amidst rising tensions from the tariff war, global leaders in the Middle-Market are grappling with uncertainty and fluctuating confidence. As Spanish entrepreneurs continue to seek local opportunities, the overall health of the global economy remains precarious, largely dictated by ongoing governmental trade policies and international relations. The convergence of these factors emphasizes the importance of fostering resilience and adaptability in the face of an evolving economic landscape.