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In Poland’s presidential election, no winner has been declared yet. According to initial projections from TV networks, the liberal candidate Rafal Trzaskowski is narrowly ahead of the right-conservative contender Karol Nawrocki.
The presidential run-off in Poland is shaping up to be a close race as expected. The pro-European government candidate, Rafal Trzaskowski, is projected to receive 50.3 percent of the votes according to initial calculations by Ipsos for TV stations TVN, TVP, and Polsat, while Karol Nawrocki, supported by the right-conservative Law and Justice party (PiS), is expected to secure 49.7 percent.
As such, an assertion about the winner is yet to be made, as the statistical margin of error is pegged at two percentage points. Nonetheless, Trzaskowski spoke of success immediately after the announcement of the initial projections, declaring, “We have won,” amid cheers from his supporters, “but it’s on a razor’s edge.”
The nationalist candidate, Karol Nawrocki, expressed confidence, stating, “We will win tonight.” Both candidates reveled in the support of their followers.
Defining Election
Observers believe that the outcome of this election will largely determine whether Poland solidifies its position within the European Union or veers toward a nationalism similar to that of former US President Donald Trump.
In the first election round held in mid-May, neither candidate achieved the required majority of at least 50 percent . Trzaskowski had a slight lead at that time, but the extreme right wing gained surprisingly substantial support.
Tusk’s Government Hopes for Liberal Victory
The independent Nawrocki represents the right-conservative PiS , Poland’s largest opposition party. The PiS ruled the country from 2015 to 2023 , enforcing strict political controls over the judiciary and often finding itself at odds with Brussels over issues of judicial independence .
The center-left coalition led by Donald Tusk, which took power in December 2023, has aimed to reverse many of those measures. However, outgoing President Andrzej Duda, also from the PiS, has vetoed many reform initiatives. Tusk does not hold the necessary 60 percent majority in Parliament to overturn the president’s vetoes.
The Polish Prime Minister is therefore pinning hopes on a victory for his political ally Trzaskowski. The 53-year-old mayor of Warsaw is viewed as progressive and left-leaning within his political faction. As president, he would support Tusk’s political agenda.
President in Poland Endowed with Significant Power
In Poland, the president serves a five-year term . The head of state possesses more power than the federal president in Germany, representing the nation on various fronts.
The president influences foreign policy, appoints the prime minister and cabinet, and acts as the supreme commander of the Polish armed forces during wartime. Crucially, the president’s veto power can complicate governance for the ruling party.