In Poland, the pro-European candidate leads in the first round of voting.

The pro-European candidate **Rafal Trzaskowski** emerged at the forefront in the first round of the **presidential election in Poland** held on May 18, 2025. This election is paramount for the future of the pro-European government in place. According to exit polls, Mr. Trzaskowski garnered **30.8%** of the vote, setting him up for a showdown against **Karol Nawrocki**, the nationalist candidate from the **Law and Justice (PIS)** party, who received **29.1%**. The second round will take place on **June 1**, with a high voter turnout of **66.8%** reported.

This election is pivotal for the pro-European government and will have significant implications for critical issues, including the **abortion laws** and the rights of **sexual minorities**. The backdrop of this electoral contention is marked by ongoing crisis points in **Europe**, particularly the **war in Ukraine**, the rise of far-right politics, and changing relations with the **United States**.

“This result shows how strong we have to be, how determined we need to,” said Mr. Trzaskowski, celebrating in a stadium in **Sandomierz**, a historic city in eastern Poland. In his victory speech, nationalist candidate Nawrocki expressed gratitude to his supporters, emphasizing that a victory in the second round would help prevent the ruling coalition from monopolizing power in the nation.

The Election Landscape

Since 2023, when the coalition led by former European leader **Donald Tusk** took power, various essential government initiatives have faced considerable roadblocks primarily due to the veto powers held by the outgoing conservative president, **Andrzej Duda**.

International relations have dominated this election cycle, particularly the ongoing negotiation concerning Poland’s place within the **European Union** and its alliance with the **United States**. These discussions have emphasized a divide between two opposing visions for Poland’s future in global politics.

On social issues, Trzaskowski has committed to supporting **abortion rights** in a country known for its extremely restrictive laws, while also standing firm on the rights of the **LGBT+ community**. In stark contrast, the PIS party, backing Nawrocki, has historically maintained a confrontational stance towards Poland’s Western allies, particularly regarding adherence to the **rule of law**.

The overall outcome of this election hinges significantly on the votes of supporters from **Slawomir Mentzen**, a far-right candidate who placed third with approximately **15.4%** of the vote. Advocating libertarian, **Eurosceptic** views, Mentzen stands firmly against both **abortion** and the presence of **migrants**, notably criticizing **Ukrainian refugees** who number around **one million** in Poland.

Implications of a Trzaskowski Victory

A win for Trzaskowski would empower the government to fulfill its unfulfilled commitments, particularly those related to women’s rights and **abortion** law reforms. His presidency could also restore the **rule of law**, which has been undermined by the preceding government and outgoing president.

“We have the opportunity to put order in our country,” stated the Nobel Peace Prize laureate **Lech Walesa**, highlighting the importance of upcoming discussions on Poland’s future in the geopolitical landscape. The Polish presidency, while limited in powers, holds legislative veto authority, a tool that Duda has utilized frequently.

Political analysts predict that with a Nawrocki presidency, the legislative agenda would be effectively stalled, threatening the existence of the current governing coalition. This scenario could pave the way for a populist resurgence in the next legislative elections in just two years if the opposition does not maintain its foothold.

In the wake of Donald Tusk’s leadership, Poland has solidified its role within Europe, marking itself as a strategic entity at the eastern borders of the **Atlantic Alliance**, especially in light of threats from **Russia**. Therefore, the significance of this election extends beyond Poland, marking it as critical in the **fight against anti-democratic populist trends** that are emerging across Europe.