What are the potential implications of Saudi Arabia developing its own civil nuclear program? How might U.S.-Saudi cooperation impact the global nuclear industry? What concerns exist regarding Saudi Arabia’s desire to enrich its own uranium? How could the dynamics between the U.S., Iran, and Saudi Arabia change with respect to nuclear agreements? What motivations does Saudi Arabia have for seeking a civil nuclear program?
Washington (AP) — Saudi Arabia wants U.S. help developing its own civil nuclear program, and the Trump administration says it is “very excited” at the prospect. U.S.-Saudi cooperation in building reactors for nuclear power plants in the kingdom could shut the Chinese and Russians out of what could be a high-dollar partnership for the American nuclear industry.
Despite that eagerness, there are obstacles, including fears that helping the Saudis fulfill their long-standing desire to enrich their own uranium as part of that partnership would open new rounds of nuclear proliferation and competition. Saudi Arabia’s pursuit of a nuclear agreement is likely to play into the ever-evolving bargaining on regional security issues involving the U.S., Iran, and Israel.
This coming week, Republican President Donald Trump will make his first trip to Saudi Arabia of his second term. Here’s a look at key issues involved in the Saudi request.
The US is eager to show it’s working toward Saudi Arabia’s nuclear ambitions
Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who traveled to Saudi Arabia before Trump’s trip, said the world can expect to see “meaningful developments” this year on helping the kingdom build a commercial nuclear power industry. Wright said the U.S. was “very excited” about it.
That does not necessarily mean there will be any big breakthroughs on Trump’s trip, said Jon Alterman, head of the Mideast program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Something smaller that still signals to the Saudis and the Iranians — with whom Trump is pushing for an agreement limiting Tehran’s nuclear program — that Washington is interested in cooperating on Saudi efforts could be the U.S. aim for now.
“There would be a lot of ways to show progress toward an agreement on a Saudi nuclear program without fully committing to a partnership on it,” Alterman said.
Solid reasons for a Saudi civilian nuclear power program
Saudi Arabia is a global oil giant, but it is also largely a desert. Running all those air conditioners uses a lot of petroleum that the kingdom would rather be exporting. The Saudis’ own oil consumption burns up one-third of what the country produces.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman also is pushing to build up Saudi Arabia’s mining and processing of its own minerals. That includes Saudi reserves of uranium, a fuel for nuclear reactors.
For the Trump administration, any deal with Iran that lets Tehran keep its own nuclear program or continue its own enrichment could increase Saudi pressure for the same.
That’s even though Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have toned down their enmity toward Iran in recent years and are supporting the U.S. efforts to limit Iran’s nuclear program peacefully.
For the U.S., any technological help it gives the Saudis as they move toward building nuclear reactors would be a boon for American companies.
Internationally, there is support for U.S. efforts to strike a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, given that the Saudis could turn to the Chinese and Russians for help developing a nuclear industry, with fewer safeguards.
The feeling is “if the U.S. doesn’t provide it, then someone else will,” said Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow in Bahrain for the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Possibility that nuclear weapons are a Saudi goal
“Without a doubt, if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we would follow suit as soon as possible,” Prince Mohammed said in 2018, at a time of higher tension between Arab states and Iran.
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states stress better relations and diplomacy with Iran now. But Prince Mohammed’s comments — and other Saudi officials said similar — have left open the possibility that nuclear weapons are a strategic goal of the Saudis.
Saudi Arabia’s desire to enrich its own uranium
The Saudis long have pushed for the U.S. to build a uranium enrichment facility in the kingdom as part of any nuclear cooperation between the two countries. That facility could produce low-enriched uranium for civilian nuclear reactors. But without enough controls, it could also churn out highly enriched uranium for nuclear bombs.
Trump administration officials cite the Saudis’ desire to make use of their country’s uranium deposits. The kingdom has spent tens of millions of dollars, with Chinese assistance, to find and develop those deposits. But the uranium ore that it has identified so far would be “severely uneconomic” to develop, the intergovernmental Nuclear Energy Agency says.
It has been decades since there has been any state-sanctioned transfer of that kind of technology to a nonnuclear-weapon state, although a Pakistani-based black-market network provided enrichment technology to Iran, North Korea, Libya, and possibly others about 20 years ago, Robert Einhorn noted for the Brookings Institute last year.
Allowing Saudi Arabia — or any other additional country — to host an enrichment facility would reverse long-standing U.S. policy. It could spur more nuclear proliferation among U.S. allies and rivals, Einhorn wrote.
The effect on regional security
Under Democratic President Joe Biden, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia had looked at nuclear cooperation as just one part of broader negotiations that also involved Saudi desires for U.S. arms and security guarantees and for a satisfactory long-term deal on behalf of Palestinians. The U.S., meanwhile, had tied the cooperation to Saudi Arabia agreeing to normalize relations with Israel.
The Trump administration seems to have unpacked some of that big bundle.
But the administration may still see holding off on any major civil nuclear agreement as leverage in brokering what would be historic diplomatic relations between the kingdom and Israel, Alterman noted. Getting to that agreement, part of what’s known as the Abraham Accords between Arab states and Israel, has been a chief goal for Trump.
After Wright’s trip, some Israelis expressed their opposition to allowing Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium, and Iran and Saudi Arabia are both carefully watching the other’s talks with the U.S. on their nuclear issues.
Trump’s Trip to Saudi Arabia: The Implications for U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Cooperation
During his administration, Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia in May 2017 marked a significant moment in U.S.-Saudi relations, particularly regarding nuclear cooperation. The trip was not just a diplomatic gesture but also framed in a broader strategy concerning energy, counterterrorism, and regional stability. Among the various discussion points, the prospect of U.S. nuclear cooperation with Saudi Arabia emerged as a topic of considerable debate and concern.
The Context of the Visit
Trump’s visit came at a time when the United States sought to strengthen alliances in the Middle East, particularly with Sunni Arab states in opposition to Iranian influence. Saudi Arabia, a key player in the region, was viewed as an essential ally in this effort. Trump’s meetings with King Salman and other Saudi officials symbolized a renewal of ties that had been strained under previous administrations.
However, the context in which this visit occurred was complex. The nuclear ambitions of many Gulf states, coupled with regional tensions and Iran’s nuclear program, raised questions about the proliferation of nuclear technology in the Middle East.
Nuclear Cooperation: A Double-Edged Sword
Discussions around nuclear cooperation were fueled by Saudi Arabia’s interest in developing a civilian nuclear program. The kingdom aimed to diversify its energy portfolio and reduce dependence on oil. With increasing global emphasis on renewable energy, Saudi leaders expressed the need for nuclear power to meet future energy demands.
However, the prospect of U.S.-Saudi nuclear cooperation raised significant concerns regarding nuclear proliferation. Critics warned that providing nuclear technology or support to Saudi Arabia could set a dangerous precedent. The main worry was that it might embolden other countries in the region to pursue similar capabilities, further destabilizing an already volatile landscape.
The 123 Agreement
Central to discussions of nuclear cooperation is the "123 Agreement," a framework that governs civilian nuclear cooperation between the U.S. and other nations. For the United States to enter such an agreement with Saudi Arabia, the kingdom would need to agree to stringent terms, including not pursuing nuclear weapons.
Historically, the U.S. has been cautious about entering into such agreements with nations that possess no substantial track record in nuclear management. Saudi Arabia’s request for a nuclear program, while potentially beneficial from an energy standpoint, came with inherent risks. The absence of a firm commitment to non-proliferation from Saudi officials was a sticking point for U.S. lawmakers and officials.
Regional Power Dynamics
The geopolitical backdrop significantly complicates the issue. Iran’s nuclear ambitions have long raised alarms in Riyadh, prompting concerns about a nuclear arms race in the region. If Saudi Arabia were to abandon its commitment to non-proliferation due to perceived threats from Iran, it could trigger a ripple effect among its neighbors.
Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s ties with Pakistan, which has a well-established nuclear arsenal, added another layer of complexity. Reports suggested that the kingdom could rely on Islamabad’s nuclear capabilities if it felt threatened. Such dynamics contributed to the argument that closer U.S.-Saudi nuclear partnership could inadvertently fuel an arms race in the Middle East.
Economic Considerations
From an economic viewpoint, U.S. businesses stood to benefit significantly from nuclear cooperation agreements. American companies are leaders in nuclear technology and infrastructure, and partnerships could open lucrative markets. This economic angle often swayed debates within the Trump administration, as officials touted the potential for job creation and trade opportunities.
However, critics argued that economic gains should not eclipse the broader implications for regional stability. They expressed concerns about the safeguards in place to manage this technology adequately, especially in a region where tensions can escalate quickly.
The Role of Congress
Congress played an essential role in shaping the future of U.S.-Saudi nuclear cooperation. After Trump’s visit, some lawmakers expressed skepticism about moving forward without stringent safeguards. Bipartisan concerns echoed around the potential risks associated with even limited cooperation.
Legislators emphasized the need for increased scrutiny and clear assurances from Saudi Arabia to adhere to non-proliferation norms. These discussions involved debates about oversight mechanisms, environmental impacts, and the long-term sustainability of any nuclear program initiated in the kingdom.
Conclusion: A Balancing Act
Ultimately, Trump’s trip to Saudi Arabia illuminated the delicate balancing act required when approaching nuclear cooperation in a region fraught with tensions. The potential for U.S.-Saudi nuclear collaboration presents both opportunities and risks that necessitate careful consideration.
While the ambitions for civilian nuclear energy development in Saudi Arabia could offer a pathway to energy diversification and economic opportunities, the implications for regional security and non-proliferation efforts cannot be discounted. As the world watches the dynamics in the Middle East, the question remains—can the U.S. effectively navigate this complex landscape to foster cooperation without undermining regional stability? The answer will define not only U.S.-Saudi relations but also the broader geopolitical framework in which these nations operate.
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia in 2017 sparked discussions about potential nuclear cooperation between the United States and Saudi Arabia. During his trip, he emphasized the importance of forging strong alliances in the Middle East, especially in the context of countering Iranian influence.
The conversation around nuclear cooperation involved considerations of technology transfer, military collaboration, and energy development. Some analysts raised concerns about the implications of such a partnership, particularly regarding nuclear proliferation in a volatile region. Critics argued that allowing Saudi Arabia to develop nuclear capabilities could escalate tensions and encourage other countries in the region to pursue similar avenues.
Proponents of cooperation highlighted the potential benefits of collaboration in energy and security sectors. They argued that a nuclear partnership could help Saudi Arabia diversify its energy sources and enhance its stability.
Overall, the discourse surrounding Trump’s trip indicated a complex interplay of geopolitical strategy, regional security concerns, and the challenges of preventing nuclear proliferation.