The population of Tromsø would probably have gone for four new years with the red-greens in power, if there had been an election today. This is according to a recent opinion poll carried out by InFact on behalf of news and the newspaper Nordlys. This despite the fact that Fremskrittspartiet is the survey’s big winner with a lead of 6.4 percentage points. The Labor Party, SV and the Center Party have a combined support of 40.7 per cent in the survey. This constitutes a narrow advantage over the bourgeois parties Høyre, Frp, KrF and Venstre, which achieve a combined 39.5 per cent in the survey. The losers in this survey are the party No to tolls and the Center Party, which respectively decrease by 5.6 and 5.5 percentage points from the election result in 2019. The columns represent the support for the parties, as well as the difference from the election result in 2019. The poll was carried out by InFact on behalf of news and Nordlys. 1009 people have been asked. Illustration: Egil Ursin / news Stats scientist at UiT, Jonas Stein, believes that little would look different in Northern Norway’s largest city if the election results had looked like this survey. He believes that two factors in particular have influenced the result. – One is that the municipality is doing better financially. There are fewer negative posts about Tromsø municipality than before. The survey’s winners and losers The winners: The survey’s big winner is Fremskrittspartiet, which is up 6.4 percent points to a support of 15 percent. With such a result, the party would become the city’s third largest. Both the Labor Party and the Conservative Party are advancing: Labor with 3.7 percentage points and the Conservative Party with 4. Red is also advancing in the survey. The party strengthens by 2.5 percentage points and ends up at 7.7 percent. The losers: The Toll Party, which loses almost two out of three voters, gets the biggest drop, and gets a support of 3.1 per cent. That is down 5.6 percentage points. The Center Party also does far worse in the survey than in the 2019 election, ending up at 5.5 percent. That’s only half the support they received at the time. SV also experiences a solid decline of 3.1 per cent. The party is nevertheless among the largest, with 12.6 percent support. Embezzlement in the millions, an IT scandal and managers who had to resign. Stein is right that there has been no shortage of scandals in the municipality in recent years. He also believes that politics in Tromsø has so far been spared perhaps the most difficult topic in politics these days. – The second is that some of the crises that affect the rest of Norway, such as the electricity crisis, are not a problem in Tromsø at all. Election researcher Jonas Stein says Tromsø Conservative Party should be disappointed that they are not experiencing greater progress in the survey. Photo: André Bendixen / news Surprised by Høyre Stein thinks it is surprising that the Labor Party is so clear about the survey. He also believes that it is surprising that the Conservative Party is not making more progress than they are, considering national polls which show that the party is clearly the largest. In fact, they are bigger than Ap and Sp combined, according to last week’s party barometer from Opinion. – They experience a strong national wind, but do relatively poorly here. They are making progress, but perhaps not as much progress as one might have expected, says Stein. Anne Berit Figenschau has launched herself as a mayoral candidate for the Conservative Party. She believes the measurement is a good starting point. – We will work hard towards the election to bring about a political change and a new direction for Tromsø, she says to news. Anne Berit Figenschau and the Conservative Party are clearly ahead in the survey, but will probably have to persuade more voters if they are to govern Tromsø after the 2023 election. Photo: news Incumbent mayor Gunnar Wilhelmsen (Ap) is also well satisfied with the survey, even though the partner parties Sp and SV goes back. – The majority is still red-green, and that is good. We will continue to work in the future to get an even better result. The mayor will not answer whether he will actually stand for re-election, but it is expected that he will. Even Figenschou cannot confirm his own candidacy yet, as this will be voted on in September. She says she is willing to stand if it is desired. However, the InFact survey shows that a clear majority of residents have not decided who they want as mayor in the city. In the survey, Tromsø residents were also asked who they would prefer as mayor after the election. Most have not decided. Graphics: Egil Ursin / news Bomring can become a joke During the municipal elections in 2019, the Labor Party made its worst election in Northern Norway since the Second World War. In Tromsø, they got 19.5 percent of the vote, a brutal drop of 11 percentage points from the election four years before. As a result, the party lost a total of five seats in the municipal council. After three years, the party has apparently strengthened, but is still far from previous levels. Jonas Stein believes that the upcoming toll ring in the city could affect the election results next year. The possible effects of this will only become visible when the toll bills start falling into the mailboxes of Tromsø residents in the late autumn, he believes. About the measurement The measurement was carried out by InFact AS on behalf of news and the newspaper Nordlys. Population: Tromsø, residents aged 18+ Number of interviews: 1009 responses Weighting: Gender, age, geography and party election 2021 Margin of error: maximum +/- 3.0 percentage points, applies to the total sample Method: InFact automatic telephone interviews Period: 4 August 2022
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Opinion poll one year before the municipal elections in Tromsø in 2023 – The Labor Party and the Right are growing – news Troms and Finnmark
