At the request of the Storting, the Ministry of Energy has obtained an overview of all new power generation in the last 20 years. The table (see below) shows that permission has been given for around 38 terawatt-hours of annual power production since 2004. Only twice has the increase been greater than 4 terawatt-hours (in 2013 and 2016), and in recent years the development has gone towards zero. Storting representative for Høgre, Olve Grotle, believes the speech is disparaging for the government. – This is the power graph the Støre government does not want to show you, he says. – Renewable energy is the basis for value creation throughout the country. If business is to develop further, we need more power quickly. It will be important for a new government to address. – These are dramatically low numbers By the new year, Norway has five years to reach the Energy Commission’s goal of a new 40 terawatt hours by 2030. According to a new analysis from Det Norske Veritas (DNV), the nation will be able to increase power production by a maximum of 5 terawatt hours during of the same time window. – These are dramatically low numbers, says NHO head Ole Erik Almlid to news. Last year, NHO and LO took the initiative for the so-called Kraftløftet, which the government joined. The purpose is to ensure enough power for green initiatives in the business world, and in addition “livable and competitive” electricity prices. – The table shows why this tripartite collaboration has been established, says LO secretary Are Tomasgard. Energy Minister Terje Aasland clarifies that non-licensed solar power is not included in the data base, and that the table therefore paints an incomplete picture. On the other side, the overview contains permits for power development that have been granted, but not used. The minister adds that “production will increase in the future” and that it is “pleasant to see that there is now also increased interest in power upgrade projects”. Energy Minister Terje Aasland is hoping for more solar power in the mix. Photo: Petter Larsson / news Lumpy offshore wind response This week, Shell, Eviny, Aker and Lyse announced that they will not participate in the competition for the floating offshore wind project Utsira nord. At the same time, the deadline for filing bids for the development of three Danish offshore wind sites in the North Sea expired. At that time, no interested party had registered. DNV concludes in its analysis that Norway is steering towards a power deficit of 10 TWh in the early 2030s. The report contrasts with an analysis from NVE which says that we are not on course for an imminent power deficit anyway. The explanation is fewer industrial establishments and a more “stingy” consumption pattern than what has previously been assumed. Stakaldefoss power plant is a hydropower plant in Sunnfjord municipality in Vestland. Photo: Oddmund Reisæter Haugen – The fact is that we don’t need this power The “dogma” of deficit has been a governing principle in the Norwegian energy debate, and has led to political decisions on more wind power, more solar power and new tax rules to stimulate more hydropower development . Isak Lekve in the left-wing think tank De Facto rejects the “scary image” about the coming power crisis. In a new analysis, he confronts the “alarmists” who “inflate” expectations of increased consumption in the future. – It is a strategy to increase our position as a raw material producer of electricity, and reduce our position as an industrial nation. I want to warn against that, he says. He adds that the narrative about an upcoming power deficit “is based on very improbable and controversial premises”. – This should have consequences for the enormous pressure to develop more wind power. The fact is that we do not need this power. William Jobling / news Harald Solberg, head of Norsk industriOversikta shows that practically no license has been granted for significant power development in the last five years. Considering the major energy transition and the electrification of both transport and industry, this means that we are moving towards a power deficit around 2030. This is a major challenge for the long-term competitiveness of the industry. Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB Are Tomasgard, LO secretary The growth in production capacity in recent years is so low that our surplus disappears very quickly. Space has been allocated in the network for a consumption that will remove the excess power in the short term if it comes. The challenge for Norway is that the power price will rise as a result of our own increased consumption. When the surplus becomes smaller, Norway must import more. Norway needs more power production. Lars Tore Endresen / news Ole Erik Almlid, NHO manager When we have too little of something, the price goes up. The fact that Norway has too little power does not mean that it will be dark in the houses, but that electricity prices will rise and many companies will struggle to make their operations profitable. In the worst case, it means that companies succumb, and that we lose jobs and viable local communities. I expect this to be an important issue in the election campaign across the country. news Øistein Schmidt Galaaen, director of production and sustainable power at Fornybar NoregTala, shows that a lack of licenses is a major barrier to ensuring increased power production. It has been demanding to get started with onshore wind power after the licensing process stopped in 2019. Industry and authorities now have joint responsibility for us getting started in a good way. The government must be commended for increasing resources for license processing and digitalisation. NTB John Fiskvik, chairman of Motvind Noreg We keep seeing that DNV’s recent report on the green shift in Norway is brought forward as a witness to the truth in the debate about wind power, and as a solution to what is referred to as Norway’s “power crisis”. But what is this crisis actually, and who wants it to be portrayed as almost inevitable? Leif Rune Løland Isak Lekve, De Facto It is good that we have managed to increase production by a large amount in the last 20 years. What I am critical of, on the other hand, is that many actors “inflate” the expectations of increased consumption in the future, and use this as an argument to say that we are steering towards a “negative power balance”, and implicitly – that we must build out more in order to ensure low prices and industry. That’s not true. Europower Haakon Barstad, political editor at Europower It may seem as if the power industry lives in a bubble with zero influence on the politicians. There is not a single proposal in the budget that will significantly strengthen power development in the short term. There are a lot of talking points about how important current is and hallelujah for hydropower, but no action that will change the pace of development, either of power generation or the grid. Unknown Rune Skjevdal, head of Norsk Grønnkraft We are seriously concerned about the development of new licenses within small power. We have seen a significant increase in case processing time in recent years. According to the Småkraftforeninga, 3 new licenses have been granted to small power plants in the last five years combined. Fredrik Kveen Knut Lockert, day-to-day manager of District Energy It is our opinion that the government’s measures do not provide the volume of renewable power that we need going forward. This applies to all forms of energy, but it remains to be seen to what extent the government will succeed with its investment in offshore wind. With increasing elements of sun and wind in the energy mix with us and our trading partners, the power upgrades become extra important. news Sverre Alvik, head of research for energy transition in DNVTabellen, gives a good overview of new power production. Non-licensed solar power, which is referred to, is large compared to licensed solar power (10x). It is larger than the little that has been licensed power in the last four years, but small (less than 2%) of the total new power production in the 20-year period. Published 07.12.2024, at 10.54
ttn-69
