Finally, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy got his wish fulfilled. On Tuesday, American long-range missiles whizzed across the border with Russia. The permission to do this has been called a “parting gift” from US President Joe Biden. Biden has stood steadfastly by Ukraine’s side through 1,000 days of full-scale war. Now he has also promised the Ukrainians American landmines. According to the news agency AP, the video will show American long-range missiles being launched in Ukraine. Neither the news agency nor news has verified the video. But soon it will be time for Biden to take his hat and go. In 61 days, Donald Trump will move back into the White House. He is not nearly as eager to support Ukraine without reservation. The question is: What kind of power does Biden have to ensure that aid continues when Trump takes over? Full control The answer could have major consequences for Ukraine. The United States is undoubtedly Ukraine’s most important supporter. When a major aid package was delayed this spring, there was a major setback for Ukraine on the battlefield. Zelenskyj warned on Tuesday that Ukraine could lose the war if they lose arms support from the United States. – If they cut, I think we will lose, Zelenskyj said in an interview with Fox News. When Zelenskyj visited the US in September, Trump said he would work with both parties to end the war in Ukraine. Photo: Julia Demaree Nikhinson / AP – In any case, we will continue to fight. We have production capacity, but not enough to win. And I don’t think it’s enough to survive. But there may be little Biden can do to ensure his Ukraine policy continues when the Trump administration takes over. – Simply put, the Ukraine support will now be the way the Republican Party wants it. That is the democratic outcome of the 2024 election, says Anders Romarheim to news. – Ribbet Romarheim is an associate professor at the Department of Defense Studies and an expert on American foreign and security policy. He says that the US president has a lot of power when it comes to foreign policy and military support abroad. Not least, it helps that the Republicans now also have a majority in Congress. This means that aid packages that have already been approved can be withdrawn. Photo: Emma-Marie B. Whittaker / news – When Trump goes to work in January 2025, the support will quite quickly be where the Republicans in the Senate, the House of Representatives and the White House want it, says Romarheim. – The Democrats will not be able to slow it down at all. They are left quite vulnerable to control mechanisms. At the same time, Biden is relatively powerless now on the eve of his presidential term. And if he goes too far in his support for Ukraine, it could lead to a backlash when Trump takes office. Romarheim says that Biden must strike a delicate balance. The Republican Party holds a majority in Congress, giving Donald Trump enormous legislative power. Photo: MANDEL NGAN / AFP – It is an intricate domestic and party political game in the transition phase, he says. But it is not the case that the US sends money directly to Ukraine. A lot goes to the US defense industry, which makes the ammunition and weapons sent to Ukraine, according to US authorities. Could it make it longer for Trump to cancel the support? Good money for the American arms industry Romarheim doubts. This despite the fact that Trump’s heart is to help American business. – Trump is “corporate America’s” favorite president. But in the global security situation, the American arms industry does not have a short order book. Demand is so high that the industry is struggling to keep up. Then it is not certain that any canceled Ukraine contracts will have much to say. The US has been supplying weapons to Ukraine since before the start of the war. Here, American anti-tank missiles are received by Ukrainian soldiers 13 days before Russia’s invasion in 2022. Photo: SERGEI SUPINSKY / AFP – Then they just sell to someone else. Because there are many countries that are now filling up their weapons stockpiles in a dangerous international situation where military force is used more frequently than just a short time ago. If the conclusion is that Trump can do as he pleases, that leads to another question: What is it that he wants? A realistic “horror scenario” So far, few people know that. But Romarheim has no doubt that he will make a clear political statement. – Trump is very interested in optics. It is essential for him that you notice a difference. There’s a new sheriff in town. Trump has not said concretely what he wants to do regarding Ukraine. Trump has been talking to Putin since it became clear that he is the next president of the United States. Here they are together at the G20 meeting in 2019. Photo: Kevin Lamarque / Reuters But he has previously claimed that the Ukraine war would never have happened if he were president, and that he can quickly end it. Many fear that it will benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin, for example by forcing Zelensky to give up occupied territories in exchange for a peace agreement. Trump’s close ally and the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, also caused a stir last week when he reposted an interview in which Zelenskyi talked about Ukrainian independence, with the text “his sense of humor is amazing.” Tesla’s Elon Musk is delighted that Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States. Here he is at Tuesday’s SpaceX launch, where Trump was also present. Photo: Brandon Bell / AP But a compromise between Putin and Zelenskyj may be the best scenario, according to Romarheim. The “horror scenario” is a rift between Zelenskyj and Trump that leads to a drastic cut in aid to Ukraine. – That doesn’t have to happen. We hope that other scenarios play out. But this is a realistic and plausible scenario. Published 20.11.2024, at 17.01 Updated 20.11.2024, at 22.49
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