In 2016, Donald Trump won over Hillary Clinton, while in 2020 he lost to Joe Biden. The 2024 election ended with a clear victory for Trump over Kamala Harris. In this case, you can see how the various voter groups have moved over these eight years. Facts about the survey You cannot read directly from the election results how different voter groups vote. That is why surveys must be carried out. Several such have been carried out. news has checked the figures with other understatements, which show the same trends. The figures in this case are taken from the survey conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. They have a combination of personal interviews with voters on election day and telephone and online polls. Personal interviews on election day were conducted at a random selection of 279 polling stations. Interviews have also been conducted with people who voted early in the period 24 October to 2 November. The results for the entire sample of 22,914 respondents have a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups. Read more about the survey on CNN. Trump managed to turn Latino men Latin American men have largely voted for the Democrats. But this year they have turned around. Trump has won more and more of this group since 2016. – Latino voters are like other voters, especially when it comes to the third and fourth generation. They are assimilated Americans who are also mostly concerned with the economy and immigration, says Hilmar Mjelde, professor of political science. Although Latin American women still vote Democratic, Trump has increased his popularity here as well. – Trump invested heavily in a digital election campaign aimed at individual groups, including black men, Latin Americans, young men and Catholics, and it seems to have worked in all cases, says journalist and commentator Henrik Heldahl. Donald Trump attends a conference of Latin American leaders on October 22. Photo: CHANDAN KHANNA / AFP He points out that many minority voters are considered working class. – The Democrats are no longer the party for the working class. That explains much of the shift among minorities. Blacks and Hispanics are largely working-class groups, says Heldahl. These groups are also more conservative when it comes to religion and more traditional in their view of gender. Won more black men Although black voters largely vote for the Democrats, Trump has managed to make a solid dent among black male voters. From 13 per cent in 2016 to 21 per cent this year. Among women, Trump fell slightly, but overall he did well among black voters compared to previous years. The Republican Party has not actually gained so many black voters in 48 years, writes Newsweek. Black Trump voters gather outside the courtroom in Washington on August 3. 2023. Photo: Mariam Zuhaib / AP Think this is positive for the USA The US experts that news has spoken to believe it is positive that Trump reached out more widely than expected. – Trump has built a multi-ethnic working class coalition. It is particularly striking that Harris seems to have done worse among women than both Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, says Mjelde. – It is actually a very positive development for democracy that Trump appeals more to minorities. It is not healthy for democracy if voters are divided along ethnic lines, Mjelde believes. Henrik Heldahl agrees. – The main headline is that racial polarization is decreasing. It crushed Kamala Harris’ winning chances, but in the long term is good for the USA if it persists. It can contribute to less tension between the racial groups. Kamala Harris managed to increase slightly among white women. The abortion issue may be a factor here. Among white men, Trump is consistently high, with around 60 percent of the vote. Level of education increasingly differentiates White voters without higher education are Trump’s core voters. Here he leads by over 30 percentage points. Support has been consistently high in the three elections. If one ignores ethnicity, and only differentiates by education level, Trump increases his lead. – Education seems to be an increasingly important line of conflict in American politics. The Republicans are becoming the new working class party and the Democrats the party of those with higher education, says Mjelde. – However, we should not exaggerate these differences. In the US’s two-party system, both parties will always have a relatively diverse electorate. The parties must always adapt to survive, he says. Donald Trump serves a customer at McDonalds in Feasterville-Trevose, Pennsylvania on October 20. According to Echelon Insights, this was the single incident that most voters saw during the election campaign. Photo: Brian Snyder / Reuters First-time voters Young people have traditionally voted for the Democrats, but Trump managed to win first-time voters this year. Biden won this group by a 32 percentage point margin in 2020. This year, Trump was ahead of Harris by 13 percentage points. The Trump campaign aimed to engage voters who are not usually interested in politics. Among other things, Trump has hosted podcasts about wrestling to attract young, male voters. If you look at the 18-29 age group, the Democrats are still the biggest, even if Trump has taken some steps. In this group, Biden had a 24 percentage point margin, this has now fallen to 11. Economy most important to people Seven out of ten answered that inflation and high prices were an important or the most important issue for how they themselves voted, according to the AP news agency. If you look at what people say about their own finances and what they vote for, there is an obvious tendency. If one says that the family’s finances are better than four years ago, the vote goes to the sitting president. If you answer that the economy has worsened, you vote for the opposite candidate. – This was primarily a rejection of the current government party. This is called retrospective voting and is a well-known phenomenon. Voters have voted against governments worldwide this year, says Hilmar Mjelde. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on Veterans Day, November 11, 2024. Photo: Kevin Lamarque / Reuters – Is there something the Trump campaign was betting on that you can read out of the numbers? – The economy and immigration were the top issues for the voters, and they saw Trump as best suited to lead the USA in both fields, Mjelde replies and continues: – The USA has no welfare state like the Norwegian one, and therefore the economy is always the top issue. Harris had a changing message on democracy and abortion, but no consistent message on the economy. Women wanted Harris, men voted Trump Looking at how women voted, it was a majority for Kamala Harris. But if you compare it to previous elections, Harris received fewer women’s votes than both Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton. At the same time that Trump captured more women’s votes than in previous elections, he increased his lead among men. Not motivated by a female president Only one in ten voters pointed to the fact that Harris could become the first female president as an important motivating factor for how they voted. This is according to a survey by the news agency AP. More voters had confidence in Trump than in Harris on the issue of handling the economy and immigration. Harris had the highest confidence on the issues of abortion and health policy. Harris did not win enough in the abortion case The case has become important after the Supreme Court decided that this is no longer a right at national level. Thus, it is up to the states to decide. In 2020, about half of Americans said abortion should be legal in all or most cases. In 2024, about two-thirds of Americans say the same. Although the right to abortion is supported by an increasing number of Americans, they do not necessarily link this to the president. About half of people who say abortion should be legal in most cases voted for Trump. Published 15.11.2024, at 19.59
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This is how the USA voted – ten graphs about the Trump voters – news Urix – Foreign news and documentaries
