The most rugged and weather-hardy areas on Svalbard lie to the north and east. For a long time it was impossible for meteorologists and helicopter pilots to know what the weather was like there. It was not until the end of the 1980s that the Meteorological Institute set up automatic weather stations. Then the technology was good enough for the stations to send data in real time via satellite. One of the stations was traveled all the way north on Spitsbergen. Another all the way north on Edgeøya in the east. The information they sent was used in weather forecasting and rescue missions. He was not officially stored for use in climate research. The engineer who was responsible for the weather stations still stored all weather data locally on his computer. Before quitting, he copied everything onto floppy disks. He passed these on to the researchers. This is what the first automatic weather stations from the 1990s looked like. The researchers had great challenges with them, among other things that polar bears managed to tear them down. Photo: Meteorological Institute Did not think it was true When the dust was blown off the old data, and the time series had been analyzed, the climate scientists had to double check that they had done everything right. The study showed that the temperature week north and east on Svalbard has been up to twice as large as in Longyearbyen and Ny-Ålesund in the west. During the last 20 years alone, the temperature northeast of Svalbard has increased by up to 5.4 degrees. It is the largest documented warming in the world. – It is very disturbing that the changes are as big as they are. At the same time I was excited. As a researcher, I work a lot with trends. It is not often that we get such a big impact, says climate researcher Ketil Isaksen at the Meteorological Institute. He has hired the study, which is published in Scientific Reports today. Climate researcher Ketil Isaksen is worried about the rapid rise in temperature in Svalbard. Photo: LINE NAGELL YLVISÅKER Major changes in nature Until now, the weather stations on the west side of Svalbard have been our reference point for the temperature week. In Longyearbyen, it has become 2.6 degrees warmer in the last 20 years. The inhabitants have noticed the changes on the body. The milder climate offers, among other things, more precipitation. There have been several avalanches and landslides. Houses have been demolished because they are too exposed, and new ones have been built by the river bed in the middle of the valley. Two people died in the avalanche in 2015. 11 pointed houses were taken by the avalanche. Photo: Geir Barstein / Svalbardposten As news writes this, a helicopter in a shuttle with support fences flies to the mountainside in Sukkertoppen just above the city center. These will prevent new landslides from the rock. In Oslo, where Isaksen lives, the warming is around 1 degree in the same period. – Only the small increase in Oslo is noticeable on the body. It has a lot to say for skiing and winter snow in the fields. It is difficult to imagine how big the changes have been for vegetation and wildlife north and east of Svalbard, says Isaksen. Aude area Few people travel all the way north and east on Svalbard. The Meteorological Institute received help from the Coast Guard to set up the weather stations. The Coast Guard transports people and equipment by boat and helicopter. In the first years, polar bears tore down the equipment, and the battery and equipment could run out of power. After a visit to a polar bear in 2002, the station on Charles XII Island looked like this. Photo: Norwegian Meteorological Institute In its new analyzes, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute has reconstructed weather data from the periods when the equipment did not work. Among other things, they use data from other stations and information about ice cover. In 2010, the weather stations were replaced with more powerful constructions and new technology. Since then, weather data has ticked into the researchers’ database almost non-stop. Here are the weather stations from which the Meteorological Institute has obtained its data. Photo: TopoSvalbard / Norwegian Polar Institute They say that the northern Barents Sea is warming up to seven times faster than the global average. The startling, new results are also supported by a completely new model called CARRA. The Arctic is warming up faster than previous research has shown. The new weather stations were installed in 2010 and have proven to be very stable. They receive supervision and service once a year. The technicians at the Meteorological Institute receive good help from the Coast Guard. They often fly in by helicopter as there is a lot of sea ice in the area. Here they are on Charles XII Island in 2013 with sea on all sides. Photo: Ole Jorgen Ostby / Meteorological Institute The ice that disappears The big temperature week is connected with the loss of sea ice. The ice acts as an insulating cover between the warmer water and the cold polar air in winter. When the lid is lifted off, the water heats up the air many degrees. Marine scientist Signe Aaboe has followed the ice and ocean traumas in the study at the Meteorological Institute. – If you look at the northern hemisphere, it is in the Barents Sea that you lose the most ice, and it accelerates. In recent decades, our change has been greater than in previous decades. It happens a lot and it happens quickly, she says. The study by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute shows that the connection between ice and air is stronger than the researchers previously thought. As soon as it is ice-free, raise the temperature. When the ice settles, the temperature drops quickly. Signe Aaboe is a marine scientist at the Meteorological Institute and one of the researchers who has worked on the recent study. Photo: Private Check the climate where you liveSearch for your municipality – Soft and fast What separates Svalbard from the rest of the Arctic, and makes the temperature week greatest here, is, among other things, the Gulf Stream. The warm Atlantic current from the south runs along the west coast of Norway. It then sends a branch of warm, salt water eastwards into the Barents Sea. Another branch runs north along the west side of Spitsbergen. In previous studies, marine scientists have seen that the flow of Atlantic water has become stronger and warmer in recent years. Before, the warm water appeared under a layer of fresh, cold, Arctic water. Now it mixes to a greater extent completely up to the surface. With higher surface temperatures, it is more difficult for the ice to settle. The period before the ice settles in the autumn and winter becomes longer. The same will be the period when the water is allowed to heat up the air. The trend spreads eastwards from Spitsbergen towards Franz Josef Land and the Kara Sea. Charles XII Island lies on the border between the Arctic Ocean and the Barents Sea. Photo: Ole Jorgen Ostby N-3630 Rodberg / Meteorological Institute Actions on each other The researchers see a strong connection between ice and air temperature. Nevertheless, they can not conclude that it is only the absence of sea ice that causes the air temperature to increase, says Aaboe. The atmosphere and the sea act on each other. As the air gets warmer, the ice cover also decreases. Where the weather system settles and the wind blows, also has a lot to say. If the wind comes from the north and east, he can suddenly push large amounts of sea ice from the Arctic Ocean towards Svalbard, and it gets cold. If the wind comes from the south and west, it carries warmer air and also pushes the ice away from Svalbard. A warning Isaksen hopes the new study from Svalbard will contribute to a better understanding of what is happening and will happen in the Arctic. The large change in temperature north and east of the archipelago shows how sensitive the Arctic is. It is a warning of what we can expect in other areas bordering the Arctic Ocean: in Greenland, in the USA, Canada and Russia. – Such a temperature week will have a major impact on wildlife, the natural environment and the Arctic population. Those who live in these areas depend on snow, ice and cold to live where they do, he says. In addition to the changes in ice cover and temperature having consequences locally, it affects the weather system and weather patterns. It will probably lead to more extreme weather and that one type of weather often lasts longer than before. Then one will more often get fluff and turkey. – It is still uncertain how these changes will be around the northern hemisphere, but they will have major ripple effects globally as well, says Isaksen. In the late 1990s, Ketil Isaksen helped establish a permafrost station at Janssonhaugen outside Longyearbyen. It shows that a heat wave is on its way down to the ground as well. In recent years, the warehouses on Verlegenhuken and Edgeøya have received permafrost stations. In this way, researchers can follow what is happening there as well. Photo: Line Nagell Ylvisåker Record and champagne What will happen to Svalbard in the coming decades? The largest temperature week will also then come in the north and east where there is by far the most ice to lose. The ice in the fjords on the west side of Spitsbergen has largely disappeared already, even in winter. Some years will be colder than others. The strength and heat of the Atlantic water flowing north varies. How the weather system settles also has a lot to say. But the temperature will presumably continue to rise for a quarter of a decade, according to Isaksen. In the summer of 2020, a new heat record of 21.7 degrees was set at Svalbard Airport. It is not often one sees people with shorts in Longyearbyen. On July 25, 2020, a heat record of 21.7 degrees was set. Photo: Line Nagell Ylvisåker The winter of 2022 is relatively cold and good, with ice north and east. Nevertheless, a heat record was set at Svalbard Airport in May and the sea ice around Svalbard has melted unusually quickly. The weather sign “Stetten” also went on record time this year. In Operafjellet just outside Longyearbyen, there is a formation that looks like a champagne glass. Both the glass, the stem and the stem are filled with snow every winter. For a quarter of a year, Svalbardposten asks the inhabitants when they think the stette will go, that is to say that a strip of land has thawed between the glass and the stette. Former employees, it has not been documented that the stette left before July, according to the newspaper. This year was June 6th. – This year there was nothing between spring and summer, Sarah Gerats told Svalbardposten. The champagne glass formation in Operafjellet just outside Longyearbyen is the inhabitants’ sign of spring. Photo: Line Nagell Ylvisåker She won this year’s champagne for first guessing the correct date for when the stette would go. On the north and east side of Svalbard, no one drinks champagne, or there may be exceptions among cruise guests and boaters who can increasingly sail in ice-free waters. Maybe they are swinging past the weather stations that now send data directly to the Meteorological Institute’s databases. Ketil Isaksen says that the researchers will follow closely what they tell in the future.
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5.4 degrees warmer in 20 years – news Troms and Finnmark
