Several people look literally dark on the power situation in Norway next spring. Little water in the reservoirs, little snow in parts of the mountains and the chance of a cold and dry winter means that Statnett has calculated that there is up to a 20 percent chance of power rationing in the spring of 2023. The consequences will be great. So big that such a crisis has for several years been one of the Directorate for Social Security and Preparedness’s imagined scenarios (external link). “The probability of the specific scenario in one of the five stream regions is estimated to be 10 percent within 100 years”, writes DSB in its latest updated analysis in 2019. Barely three years later, the scenario has suddenly become alarmingly relevant. Updating the crisis analysis People can die and be seriously injured due to accidents and lack of mobile phone coverage, among other things, according to the current scenario. Directly and indirectly, in the worst case there could be up to 100 deaths. DSB clarifies that there is a great deal of uncertainty associated with the estimate. DSB is now in the process of updating the crisis scenario so that it is more similar to the demanding energy situation Norway and Europe are in. The situation is far worse than the assumptions made in the previous scenario analysis, says the director of DSB to news. – There is a war in Ukraine, severe and long-lasting drought in Europe and a low degree of filling in our magazines. This means that the power situation is more serious than before. We must make sure that the scenarios we use for crisis management in Norway are up to date, says DSB director Elisabeth Aarsæther. The goal is to be finished with the updated scenario before Christmas. Any electricity rationing will not be introduced in winter, but in spring. It is certain that the situation will be bad enough. DEADLINES: Dark roads and several deadlines are one of the dangers of power rationing in Norway. Photo: Tor Andre Johannessen Bare current eight hours a day And it can get bad. Today’s crisis scenario for long-term power rationing is grim reading. DSB is analyzing a scenario where the 600,000 residents in the NO3 price area (Trøndelag, Møre og Romsdal, Sogn og Fjordane, Oppland and Hedmark) have to ration. “Two seasons of low rainfall have meant that the level of filling in the reservoir is initially low. [ …] The prospects for imports from abroad are very limited due to the halt in Swedish nuclear power production and cable chaos. An early and cold winter leads to high consumption from before Christmas,” says DSB. Then the rationing starts on 1 March, with power-demanding industry being switched off. Two weeks later, there will be a rotating disconnection for the rest of the population, until it is concluded on 15 May. Director Elisabeth Aarsæther at DSB hopes the scenario will never become something we get to experience. Photo: Geir Olsen / NTB 100 can die Then the residents will only have access to electricity twice four hours a day. It is called “zonally rotating current disconnection” and is something that “has not happened in modern times in Norway”. The consequences in the DSB scenario are very large: Direct and indirect deaths are expected to be up to 100 people. Accidents will have greater consequences because people cannot get in touch with the emergency services if mobile network base stations fail. Several traffic closures are expected due to the lack of lights. There will also be more use of open fires, which increases the risk of residential fires. Between 300 and 500 are expected to become ill or seriously injured. The financial loss could be between NOK 10 and 20 billion, but DSB is very uncertain here. It is industry, business and the power industry itself that will bleed the most money. Great stresses in people’s daily lives, and unrest and frustration. It will be difficult to pay for yourself in shops and ATMs will occasionally be down. It can be difficult to fill up with petrol, charge a car, signaling systems for trains and road traffic will be affected. Confidence in the governing authorities may be reduced because such a crisis has not been avoided. Crisis scenario to prevent accidents – I really hope we don’t get there, says the DSB director about the possibility that we won’t be able to use electricity as we want in the spring. – The purpose of scenario and planning is to minimize serious consequences for people. It is important in all scenario thinking, namely to ensure life, health and values. That is why we do this, says Aarsæther.
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100 people could die in DSB and the state’s crisis scenario – now the analysis must be updated – news Vestland
