Can the Labor Party manage a power lift? The weather was as warm as only Bergen in September can offer when Jonas Gahr Støre made a last effort to convince lukewarm voters in Western Norway. Coincidence would have it that the two doors he knocked on belonged to satisfied Ap voters. Finally some luck for Støre! In advance, the local LO top Richard Storevik had asked Støre and co. stay away from Bergen in the run-up to the election campaign. But he was received by the local team with cake and warm applause. So they don’t have much to complain about. Støre has done well in the TV debates and is using the last week to leak like a sieve from the state budget. Good to mark the goodies. Cheaper daycare, study places in the districts, government jobs and money for long-awaited road projects. The Labor Party has a great many undecided voters on the fence. If they manage to get hold of them, the party can secure an election result that does not scream crisis. Knock, knock: Jonas Gahr Støre and city council leader candidate Rune Bakervik went on house calls in Bergen in pouring rain. If they were unlucky with the weather, they were lucky with the doors they knocked on. It was probably only faithful Ap voters who were at home that day. Photo: Tone Sofie Aglen Or will the scandals destroy Jonas? But what do you do with enemies when you have a bunch of party comrades who are almost queuing up to undermine the local election campaign? The question comes after this year’s summer of scandals. When the news about Anniken Huitfeldt’s share trading came out, some thought it was a hidden camera. Is it possible? For the fourth time? The question is whether the mess in government destroys the final sprint Ap needs to avoid a crisis election. The fear at Youngstorget is that after 100 years, Ap is no longer the country’s largest party. The integrity scandals in government, and the share trading case of Anniken Huitfeldt’s husband, could destroy Ap’s election campaign momentum. Does the Conservative Party crack the race? The sun came with Erna Solberg when she left the important penultimate weekend before the election for the red-green bastion Trøndelag. And there has been a lot of sunshine for the Conservative leader in the past year. The party has been sky high in the polls, and has been the country’s supremely largest party. Loyalty has been at what we like to call North Korea level. Therefore, it has been expected that the party we will lose some voters when the election campaign starts and the other parties start mobilizing. But has darkness descended on the Right? Do they crack, or do they manage to hold their own? There is much to be said about, but several surveys show that the party is going back significantly in large cities. Where it used to be thought that Bergen and Stavanger could easily be won, it is now a dead end. It has sent shock waves through Stavanger that Ap has caught up with the Conservative Party in news’s brand new survey. It also shows some of the weaknesses in Høyre’s growth. Although few would deny that the party works well in opposition, their strength is mostly about the government’s weak reputation and Erna Solberg’s strong position in the eyes of the people. The Conservatives would probably like to see that the election was a week ago. The push is about not making mistakes, motivating to vote and showing the party’s strongest cards: Can the election be won through selfies with Erna Solberg? G (r) one in the country: Erna Solberg must answer questions from news about her husband’s share purchase when she visited Geitastrand in Orkland municipality. Geita Chanel, who belongs to the party’s mayoral candidate, also wanted to have a say in the team. How blue does the coast get? If the Conservative Party is to win the election, they must win the coast, says an old jungle saying in the Conservative Party. And so far, a strong right-hand wind has been blowing in the coastal municipalities. “Right – Right – Right” is shouted from children’s mouths on Frøya. At the far end of the sea gap in Trøndelag, Erna Solberg is attacked by a swarm of children dressed in blue. Now this is not everyday food in red-green Trøndelag. The Conservative Party has only two of 38 mayors in the county. The selfie election: If the election could be won by the number of selfies, Høyre leader Erna Solberg is in good shape. She was greeted by children dressed in blue when she visited Frøya in Trøndelag. LukkEditigerEgenskaper Photo: Tone Sofie Aglen In 2019, the Conservative Party only got 12.9 percent in Frøya, but still managed to get the mayor. In the last poll, they got 37.6 per cent, and can feel quite confident about re-election. Cause? Salmon tax. And if you ask any Ap politician in Nordland why coastal municipalities in, for example, Lofoten and Vesterålen seem to be turning blue, they are in unison in the answer: Salmon tax. It is perceived as the straw that made it overflow. Along the coast, the government has received the stamp of being unconcerned with business and value creation. It has so far benefited the Conservative Party. Will the coast be Erna Solberg’s salvation? Conservative leader Erna Solberg was given a toothbrush by Rødt politician Steven Crozier when she visited Frøya. He believes that the Conservative Party must prioritize free dental health, but Solberg did not fully agree. Despite red elements, there is a blue wind in the aquaculture municipality that houses the farming giant Salmar. Right-wing mayor Kristin Strømskag (front left), who has faced opposition to the salmon tax, has a good chance of being re-elected. Photo: Tone Sofie Aglen Are the mayors saving the government? Popular mayors often gain a lot of trust and are often re-elected. It could be a goldmine for Ap and Sp in this election campaign, because they have 288 of the country’s 356 mayors. In Stavanger, for example, much has been mobilized on the popularity of mayor Kari Nessa Nordtun (Ap). In Alstahaug on Helgeland, Sp’s mayor Peter Talseth seems to still have the voters’ trust after the last snap election, even though Sp has fallen like a stone in the north. As the Conservative Party lost most of its mayors, unlike Ap, they do not have many local profiles to lean on. And in many municipalities, the battle is not between Labor Party and the Conservative Party, as we often talk about, but between government comrades Labor Party and Sp. Stavanger mayor Kari Nessa Nordtun (Ap) has made strong progress in the election campaign. The introduction of a free bus is probably part of the explanation, combined with a highly personalized campaign. Photo: Øystein Otterdal / news Flop or phenomenon? In 2019, the toll party was the sensation of the election. Now they have not only changed their name to the People’s Party, they have practically disappeared from people’s consciousness. In contrast, the Industrial and Business Party is on everyone’s lips. The party is doing particularly well in Western Norway, but also in industrial municipalities such as Mo i Rana and Narvik, the party has received more than 10 percent in polls. Even in big cities, they can end up on the edge. In the election booth on Nordre gate, the party’s top candidate in Trondheim, Roar Atle Jakobsen, hands out leaflets and leaflets. He is an even more nondescript paper than his party, and refuses to say anything about who he will support from the Conservative Party or Ap. What he is sure of, however, is that his party will have some problems. And he is probably right about that. So far, the party has cheaply escaped critical questions. Undescript sheet: The Industrial and Business Party’s list-topper Roar Atle Jakobsen is unknown to most people in Trondheim, but gets a lot of visitors at his stand on Nordre gate. The retired sailor refuses to say who he wants as mayor. Photo: Tone Sofie Aglen The fresh party has obviously hit a nerve. The combination of high electricity prices, criticism of offshore electrification, climate skepticism and wind turbine opposition is an effective cocktail. It is also in line with international trends that they share the left’s generous welfare state, but are more conservative in matters of value. But will they actually gain traction in the election? Overheard among business leaders in the north: Everyone talks about the Industrial and Business Party, but I have the benefit of meeting someone who actually says they will vote for them. In any case, small parties, whether it is the Industrial and Business Party, the Pensioners’ Party, the People’s Party or other local lists, can gain leverage and great influence in the negotiations after the election. For example, the Sami party Nordkalottfolket has proven to be a strong political force (and counterculture) in Finnmark. SV’s Lars Haltbrekken is in Trondheim to give the local team support in the election campaign. The climate and energy politician has got his claws into the Industry and Business Party’s programme, and is not impressed by what he is reading. On the right, SV’s local politician Ottar Michelsen. Is SP collapsing in the north? Or does Vedum find hidden powers? “Are they in a parallel galaxy?” Disbelieving list leaders in the Center Party understand nothing of the government’s plans for the electrification of Melkøya in Finnmark. And it is not just in the north that local Sp-ers feel let down by the government. But Sp’s decline in northern Norway started long before Melkøya. The party made a snap election in 2019, but two out of three voters appear to have left the party in the north. In particular, it is the new protest voters in towns and villages who have found new ground. At the same time, Sp seems to be holding its form better in its traditional core areas in Trøndelag, Vestlandet and Innlandet. And the party has many mayors, who are often highly trusted. To what extent can de Centert mitigate the party’s fall? The Center Party’s mayoral candidate in Lebesby, Jon Nikolaisen, has been very unhappy with his own government’s decision to electrify Melkøya. He does not want a wind farm in his municipality. Photo: Mats Rønning / news Who will win the big cities? For a long time it was believed that the Conservative Party would go for a comfortable victory in Bergen and Stavanger, while it has been closer in Oslo and Bergen. But the latest measurements show that there is virtually a deadlock in all four of the largest cities. Only Kristiansand and Tromsø seem reasonably settled in favor of blue and red, respectively. In Stavanger, commentators have said that the Conservative Party’s mayoral candidate would rather play golf than run an election campaign, but that seems to be a bad idea now. Now it is fully mobilized to get people to vote. It is hardly a coincidence that Erna Solberg spends the last Saturday in Bergen, but Jonas Gahr Støre travels to Trondheim. There is a lot at stake here. Good work? Jonas Gahr Støre (Ap) and Trygve Slagsvold Vedum (Sp) have spent the last week serving treats from the state budget. It remains to be seen whether it produces results, but party colleagues in Voss think they deserved a Good job cup. Photo: Tone Sofie Aglen Have any parties gone under the radar? The impression of the election campaign can sometimes play tricks on us. In the last election, for example, we thought that SV made a better choice than they turned out to make, while Sp was underestimated. The results from the school election showed a blue wave among young people. Some polls have shown that the FRP is in the lead, especially in northern Norway. FRP is generally a party that can be difficult to measure. Venstre is another party that has gone under the radar in the election campaign, but has shown buoyancy. And what actually happens to the parties that failed to pass the barrier last time, KrF and MDG? Or is it someone completely different who wants to take us to bed? FRP leader Sylvi Listhaug has traveled around the country in a motorhome. Could that make her and the FRP the big surprise of the election campaign? Photo: Ingrid Gulbrandsen Årdal / news Why do people really bother to vote? This must be called a low-energy election campaign. Although local issues involve the municipalities to varying degrees, there are few cases that have broken the sound barrier. The scandals in government have probably also overshadowed politics. Many local politicians are concerned that voters will exercise their right to vote to a small extent. And low turnout (and a lot of advance voting) can affect the election result. In any case, on Monday we will get the answer to these ten questions, and many, many more. Good choice!
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10 questions that can decide the election – Speech
